Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien Prediction

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #34
47%
VS

Learner Tien

Rank: #67
53%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Learner Tien

Ranking Trends

Alex Michelsen

  • Current Rank: #34 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #38 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #36 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #44 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #60 (2024-07-29)

Learner Tien

  • Current Rank: #67 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #69 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #80 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #125 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #242 (2024-07-29)

Player Metrics

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 43.5
ELO Rating: 1241.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 267.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.4
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 88.8

Learner Tien

Form Index: 60.5
ELO Rating: 1118.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1609.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 270.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.8
Clay: 4.6
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Alex Michelsen
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-1) hard Toronto 151 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) hard Toronto 116 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Evans (0-2) hard Washington 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (0-2) grass Mallorca 115 min

Learner Tien
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (2-0) hard Toronto 85 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (2-0) hard Toronto 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (2-0) hard Toronto 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Washington 70 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-0) hard Washington 91 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alex Michelsen
vs
0
Learner Tien
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Alex Michelsen and Learner Tien in the Round of 16 at the Toronto Masters 1000 tournament promises to be an intriguing contest on hard court. With both players showcasing solid performances, Learner Tien is predicted to edge out with a win, holding a probability of 52.81% compared to Michelsen's 47.19%. The anticipated total number of games played is expected to be around 22.

Match Analysis

Alex Michelsen, currently ranked 34, boasts a form index of 43.53 and an Elo rating of 1241.49, indicating a solid level of play. Despite a cumulative fatigue of 267 minutes in this tournament, his mean serve index stands at 97.42 and a mean return index at 88.77, both of which are competitive. In contrast, Learner Tien, ranked 67, has a higher form index of 60.47 and a lower Elo rating of 1118.70. Tien's fatigue is slightly higher at 270 minutes, but his mean serve index is at 94.71, which is within 5 points of Michelsen's. However, their return indices are closely matched as well, with Tien at 88.57, indicating a balanced matchup in terms of returning capabilities. Both players have shown impressive recent form, with Michelsen winning two out of his last three matches, including a notable victory over Lorenzo Musetti. Meanwhile, Tien has been on a winning streak, triumphing in all three of his last matches, including victories against top players like Denis Shapovalov and Reilly Opelka. This recent success gives Tien a mental edge heading into their encounter.

Final Prediction

Learner Tien's recent form and higher performance index provide him with a slight advantage over Michelsen in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be Tien's ability to maintain his winning momentum against a competitive opponent, particularly in his serving and returning games. This could ultimately determine the outcome of the match.