Bucharest Romania Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Gabriel Diallo vs Alex Molcan: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Gabriel Diallo

Rank: #36
66%
VS

Alex Molcan

Rank: #189
34%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Gabriel Diallo

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Ranking Trends

Gabriel Diallo

  • Current #36 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #41 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #35 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #40 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #81 2025-03-31

Alex Molcan

  • Current #189 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #204 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #196 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #480 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #590 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Gabriel Diallo

Form Index: 50.2
ELO Rating: 1628.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1638.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.1
Clay: 41.9
Grass: 44.6
Serve Rating: 82.6
Return Rating: 63.8

Alex Molcan

Form Index: 66.0
ELO Rating: 1566.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1671.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 369.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.3
Clay: 39.5
Grass: 39.6
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 90.4

Recent Matches

Gabriel Diallo
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Miami 68 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (2-0) hard Miami 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-2) hard Indian Wells 147 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-1) hard Indian Wells 172 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) hard Indian Wells 133 min

Alex Molcan
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-0) clay Bucharest 72 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jay Clarke (2-1) clay Bucharest 196 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Billy Harris (2-0) clay Bucharest 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Gabriel Diallo
vs
0
Alex Molcan
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Bucharest’s round of 16 on clay, Gabriel Diallo meets Alex Molcan in an intriguing contrast of styles and recent load. The model favors Diallo to win (65.88% chance) over Molcan (34.12%), with a predicted total of roughly 23.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Diallo arrives with the higher ranking (No. 36) and a stronger Elo (1628.43) while Molcan sits at No. 189 with an Elo of 1566.94. Diallo’s form index (50.17) is lower than Molcan’s (66.00), but fatigue is a major split: Diallo shows zero minutes on court in this event, whereas Molcan has accumulated 369 minutes, including a 196-minute match. Surface strength indices are similar (Diallo 41.94, Molcan 39.45), suggesting neither has a decisive clay-court edge on paper. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply. Molcan’s mean serve index (95.83) comfortably exceeds Diallo’s (82.64) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (90.43) is also far higher than Diallo’s (63.77), a gap worth noting. Over their last three matches, Diallo is 1–2 (wins over Yibing Wu; losses to Auger-Aliassime and Humbert), with longer hard-court tests recently. Molcan is 3–0 in Bucharest, beating Arnaldi, Clarke and Harris on clay, but those wins have come with heavy court time that could influence durability late in rallies.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Gabriel Diallo - Alex Molcan) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest sits at about 19.74 total, while the predicted double faults are lower but notable with an expected double faults figure of 4.32. On clay, expected aces tend to be suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, and clay often increases pressure-related serving errors; the double faults prediction reflects that. Molcan’s much higher serve rating may lift the predicted aces, even as the surface mutes some of that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.7 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Diallo’s higher ranking, superior Elo and fresher legs give him the modeled edge, despite Molcan’s recent form and impressive serve/return metrics. Watch Molcan’s serve and whether his accumulated minutes sap his movement late in rallies — that combination will likely decide the match.

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