Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #16
45%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
55%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #16 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #25 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #75 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #39 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #33 (2024-10-28)

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #6 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #7 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #8 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #10 (2024-10-28)

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 54.8
ELO Rating: 1693.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1762.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 170.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.1
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 85.4

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 60.7
ELO Rating: 2461.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1796.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 27.1
Grass: 28.5
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Paris 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Paris 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Vienna 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-0) hard Vienna 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-0) hard Vienna 68 min

Alex de Minaur
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Vienna 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) hard Vienna 103 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Filip Misolic (2-0) hard Vienna 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jurij Rodionov (2-0) hard Vienna 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Shanghai 113 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexander Bublik
vs
1
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinal match between Alexander Bublik and Alex de Minaur in the Paris Masters 1000 promises to be an exciting encounter on hard courts. With Alex de Minaur predicted to win with a probability of 55.10%, compared to Bublik's 44.90%, the anticipated total number of games played is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 16th, Alexander Bublik boasts a form index of 54.83 and an Elo rating of 1693.81. However, he carries a cumulative fatigue of 170 minutes from the tournament, which may impact his performance. His surface strength index stands at 11.11, while his mean serve index (96.99) is notably higher than his mean return index (85.37). This suggests a potent serve, but a relatively weaker return game. Bublik's recent form has been solid, with two consecutive wins in the Paris tournament, including a decisive victory over Corentin Moutet. Conversely, Alex de Minaur, currently ranked 6th, has a form index of 60.74 and a substantially higher Elo rating of 2461.19. Notably, he has zero cumulative fatigue from the tournament, which gives him a significant advantage in stamina and freshness. His surface strength index is considerably better at 19.33, and while his mean serve index (94.45) is lower than Bublik's, his mean return index (87.65) is superior, indicating stronger capabilities in returning serves. De Minaur's recent performances have been mixed, with one loss to Jannik Sinner but prior victories against Matteo Berrettini and Filip Misolic.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur's edge in Elo rating, surface strength, and freshness could be crucial in this matchup. A key factor to observe will be how well Bublik's serve holds up against de Minaur's strong return game, which may dictate the momentum of the match.