Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #24
35%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #11
65%
Expected Total Games: 28.2
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

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Ranking Trends

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current #24 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #30 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #29 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #77 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #72 2025-05-19

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #11 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #10 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #11 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #51 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 47.5
ELO Rating: 1661.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1712.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 242.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 20.8
Grass: 23.7
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 90.2

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 23.3
ELO Rating: 1722.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1817.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.1
Clay: 34.4
Grass: 34.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 84.2

Recent Matches

Arthur Rinderknech
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Alexander Bublik
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Edas Butvilas (2-0) clay Geneva 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) clay Rome 127 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) clay Rome 59 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (0-2) clay Madrid 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Molcan (0-2) clay Munich 65 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Rinderknech
vs
0
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Geneva quarterfinals on clay at a 250-level tournament, Alexander Bublik is favored to advance against Arthur Rinderknech. The model gives Bublik a 64.78% chance of victory to Rinderknech’s 35.22%, with a projected total of about 28.25 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The matchup pits the world No. 11, Bublik, against No. 24 Rinderknech. Bublik carries the higher Elo (1722.8 vs 1661.3) and a better clay surface strength index (34.45 vs 20.77), while Rinderknech shows a stronger recent form index (47.53) compared with Bublik’s 23.27. Fatigue is a clear factor: Rinderknech has logged 242 minutes in this event already, including a 166-minute win in the last round, whereas Bublik has played just 79 minutes here, leaving him noticeably fresher. Mean serve indices are similar (Rinderknech 97.01, Bublik 95.49), so serve potency is comparable, but Rinderknech’s mean return index (90.23) is meaningfully higher than Bublik’s (84.15), suggesting Rinderknech can exert more pressure when receiving. Form over the last three matches is mixed for both. Rinderknech has two wins at Geneva (over Tirante and Djere) after a loss in Madrid, demonstrating momentum on clay despite heavy court time. Bublik also has two wins in his last three, including a straight-sets victory here in Geneva and a recent loss in Rome; his shorter recent matches have conserved energy heading into the quarterfinal.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 28.2 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Rinderknech - Alexander Bublik) -1.6 Most likely spread: -2 (Alexander Bublik wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest sits at roughly 16.93 total aces, with a predicted aces split likely favoring the server who gets more free points. Clay’s slower bounce suppresses raw ace totals, so that predicted aces number is tempered by surface. The double faults prediction is about 4.78 expected double faults; longer points and accumulated fatigue—especially on Rinderknech’s side—could push that number higher as the match wears on.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

52.7% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Arthur Rinderknech's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (36.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s higher Elo, superior clay index and fresher legs give him the edge in Geneva despite Rinderknech’s strong return profile and recent wins. The key factor to watch is Rinderknech’s movement late in rallies: if his heavy minutes this week start to show, Bublik’s margin should grow.

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