Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #22
35%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #18
65%
Expected Total Games: 25.2
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Why the Model Favors Brandon Nakashima

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.3 Brandon Nakashima
Recent form +4.3 Brandon Nakashima
Overall record & opposition quality +1.7 Brandon Nakashima
Age +1.4 Brandon Nakashima
Surface fit +1.2 Brandon Nakashima

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Brandon Nakashima. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #22 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #11 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #11 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #11 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #17 2025-09-29

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #18 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #31 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #33 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #33 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 49.5
ELO Rating: 1759.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1808.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 83.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.2
Clay: 29.3
Grass: 36.1
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 88.0

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 51.7
ELO Rating: 1844.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1842.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 111.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.2
Clay: 19.4
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-0) hard Shanghai 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Beijing 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs J.J. Wolf (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brandon Nakashima is favored, with a 65% chance of winning against Alexander Bublik’s 35%. The Shanghai Round of 32 matchup is projected to last 25.2 games.

Match Analysis

Nakashima’s stronger recent record against opposition at this level is the clearest separator. His higher ranking, 18th against Bublik’s 22nd, and better hard-court profile reinforce the advantage. Recent results are less decisive: both won their latest match in straight sets, Nakashima against Matteo Berrettini and Bublik against Tomas Machac. Nakashima has spent 111 minutes on court in Shanghai, 28 more than Bublik, a modest workload disadvantage for the favorite.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Bublik - Brandon Nakashima) -1.5 Most likely spread: -2 (Brandon Nakashima wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bublik is projected for 11.0 aces and 3.8 double faults, compared with 8.9 aces and 2.0 double faults for Nakashima. Bublik’s serve is expected to produce more outright points, but the higher double-fault estimate points to greater risk on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.1 Most likely: 17 aces Per player: Alexander Bublik 11.0 + Brandon Nakashima 8.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Alexander Bublik 3.8 + Brandon Nakashima 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alexander Bublik

Expected 11.0 aces

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 8.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alexander Bublik

Expected 3.8 double faults

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

49.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Bublik's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (39.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s serve is the clearest way to shift this forecast. If he turns the expected ace advantage into pressure while keeping his double faults in check, he can make Nakashima’s broader edge harder to translate into a win.

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