Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 16

Alexander Bublik vs Jack Draper Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #51
36%
VS

Jack Draper

Rank: #5
64%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Jack Draper

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #51 2025-05-19
  • 3 mo ago #51 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #34 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #27 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #17 2024-05-27

Jack Draper

  • Current #5 2025-05-19
  • 3 mo ago #12 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #15 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #25 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #39 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 76.2
ELO Rating: 1411.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1647.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 86.6

Jack Draper

Form Index: 84.2
ELO Rating: 2752.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1703.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 20.9
Grass: 23.1
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Henrique Rocha (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (0-2) clay Hamburg 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (1-2) clay Rome 116 min

Jack Draper
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
1
Jack Draper
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 at Roland Garros features a compelling matchup between Alexander Bublik and Jack Draper on the clay courts of France. With Draper positioned as the favorite, he holds a 64.34% probability of winning compared to Bublik's 35.66%. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 38.

Match Analysis

Jack Draper currently ranks 5th in the world, showcasing an impressive form index of 84.16, which is significantly higher than Alexander Bublik's 76.16. Draper's Elo rating stands at 2752.74, indicating his strong performance level. Both players share the same cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes, but Draper's surface strength index of 20.94 surpasses Bublik's 13.16, highlighting his proficiency on clay. The match may also see a notable difference in their serve and return capabilities, with a slight advantage for Draper in the return index, where he leads by 0.73 points. In their recent outings, both players have shown solid form, winning all three of their matches at Roland Garros. Draper has been particularly dominant, achieving straight-set victories against Joao Fonseca, Gael Monfils, and Mattia Bellucci. On the other hand, Bublik also progressed through the rounds with convincing wins against Henrique Rocha, Alex de Minaur, and James Duckworth, though he did drop two sets against de Minaur. This reflects a slight inconsistency in his performance compared to Draper's clean slate.

Final Prediction

Jack Draper's edge in rank, form, and surface strength positions him as the likely winner in this matchup against Alexander Bublik. The ability to effectively return serves will be a crucial factor to monitor, as Draper’s slight advantage in this area could significantly impact the outcome of the match.

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