Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Alexander Bublik vs Roman Safiullin Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #76
47%
VS

Roman Safiullin

Rank: #77
53%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Roman Safiullin

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #76 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #49 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #34 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #25 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #17 2024-05-06

Roman Safiullin

  • Current #77 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #69 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #60 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #66 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #39 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 53.4
ELO Rating: 1294.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1633.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 12.2
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 86.5

Roman Safiullin

Form Index: 37.3
ELO Rating: 817.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 7.1
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Roman Safiullin
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
1
Roman Safiullin
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Alexander Bublik and Roman Safiullin at the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome promises to be an intriguing battle on clay. With both players relatively close in rankings, Safiullin is slightly favored to win, holding a probability of 52.82% compared to Bublik's 47.18%. The predicted total number of games played is 23.0, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Alexander Bublik, currently ranked 76, possesses a form index of 53.42 and an Elo rating of 1294.62. His surface strength index stands at 12.25, which indicates moderate adaptability to clay. Notably, Bublik's mean serve index is 97.28, suggesting a strong serving capability. In contrast, Roman Safiullin, ranked 77, has a lower form index of 37.31 and an Elo rating of 817.79, reflecting less recent success. Safiullin's surface strength index is 7.10, and while his mean serve index is slightly lower at 96.21, he boasts a higher mean return index of 88.35 compared to Bublik's 86.47. Both players have faced challenges in their recent matches. Bublik's last three outings include a disappointing loss to Jakub Mensik, along with a couple of victories against Andrey Rublev and Alexei Popyrin. Safiullin's recent performances have also been lackluster, with losses to Arthur Rinderknech and Jakub Mensik, punctuated by a win against Alexei Popyrin. This mixed form may play a crucial role in their performance trajectory moving into this match.

Final Prediction

Roman Safiullin's slight edge in the predicted outcome can be attributed to his superior return capabilities and a more consistent performance history despite his recent challenges. A key factor to observe during the match will be Bublik's serving effectiveness, as his ability to deliver strong serves could heavily influence the match dynamics, especially on clay.

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