Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Zverev comes mainly from overall strength (plus 9.7 percentage points) and surface fit (plus 8.8 points), supported by recent form at high level (plus 7.6 points). Zverev is the world number 2, with a higher Elo at 2037.49 and a form index of 61.92. His surface strength index on hard courts is 51.41. Tabilo sits at rank 28, Elo 1738.33, and a lower surface strength index of 31.73. Both players show identical cumulative fatigue from this tournament at 348 minutes on court, so recovery between matches should be comparable. Serve and return factors modestly favor Zverev (1.9 points). Zverev posts a mean serve index of 97.64 and a mean return index of 89.84. Tabilo’s serve index is 96.22 and return index is 86.31. The differences do not exceed the model’s 5-point flag for serve or return gaps, so the matchup should not hinge on a large serving disparity. Over their last three matches, Zverev has won two tough five-setters at the US Open after a loss in Cincinnati, showing resilience in long encounters. Tabilo has two straight 3-1 wins at the US Open following a loss in Cincinnati, indicating momentum but against lower-ranked opposition overall.