Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Alexander Zverev vs Jacob Fearnley Prediction

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
81%
VS

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #59
19%
Predicted Games Played: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Ranking Trends

Alexander Zverev

  • Current Rank: #3 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #2 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #2 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #4 (2024-08-26)

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current Rank: #59 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #55 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #81 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #98 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #158 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 58.0
ELO Rating: 5982.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1885.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.8
Clay: 53.9
Grass: 59.8
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 87.8

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 16.1
ELO Rating: 892.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1526.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.3
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Alexander Zverev
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Cincinnati 105 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-0) hard Cincinnati 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) hard Cincinnati 70 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Cincinnati 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nishesh Basavareddy (2-0) hard Cincinnati 66 min

Jacob Fearnley
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) hard Winston Salem 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Zizou Bergs (0-2) hard Cincinnati 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Pablo Ficovich (0-2) hard Toronto 70 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Joao Fonseca (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marcos Giron (0-2) grass Eastbourne 63 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Alexander Zverev
vs
0
Jacob Fearnley
Hard
2 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at the US Open in New York will see Alexander Zverev, ranked 3rd in the world, face off against Jacob Fearnley, ranked 59th, in the Round of 64 on hard courts. Zverev is heavily favored to win, with an 81.23% probability of victory, while Fearnley has an 18.77% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 35.

Match Analysis

Alexander Zverev enters this match with a solid form index of 57.99 and an Elo rating of 5982.05, indicating a strong competitive level. His fatigue level is at 0.0, suggesting he is well-rested and ready for action. Zverev's surface strength index of 53.81 highlights his proficiency on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 98.08 and mean return index of 87.77 show he possesses a significant advantage in both serving and returning abilities. The differences in their serve indices (greater than 5 points) underscore Zverev's superior serving capability. In contrast, Jacob Fearnley has a form index of 16.06 and an Elo rating of 892.37, which reflects a less competitive edge. He also has a fatigue level of 0.0, similar to Zverev, but his surface strength index is considerably lower at 6.29. His mean serve index of 94.67 and mean return index of 88.77 indicate he is a competent player but lacks the explosive serve that Zverev possesses. In recent performances, Fearnley has struggled, losing all three of his last matches, including recent encounters at the Winston-Salem and Cincinnati tournaments, where he failed to win a set.

Final Prediction

Zverev's higher ranking, combined with his superior serve and return capabilities, gives him a definitive edge over Fearnley in this matchup. A key factor to observe will be Zverev's ability to control the pace of the match with his serve, which could dictate the outcome and limit Fearnley's opportunities to mount a challenge.