Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #60
28%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #25
72%
Expected Total Games: 27.8
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #60 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #53 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #54 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #37 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-05-19

Casper Ruud

  • Current #25 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #13 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #7 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 46.7
ELO Rating: 1642.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1673.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 268.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 28.6
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 89.2

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 65.7
ELO Rating: 1931.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1877.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 178.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.4
Clay: 46.0
Grass: 27.4
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 83.6

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Casper Ruud
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexei Popyrin
vs
1
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Geneva quarterfinals on clay, a 250-level event in Switzerland, pits big-hitting Alexei Popyrin against clay-specialist Casper Ruud. The model favors Ruud (72.44%) over Popyrin (27.56%), with a predicted total of about 27.75 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Ruud arrives with the stronger credentials on paper: No. 25, an Elo of 1931.95 and a form index of 65.65. His surface strength index (45.99) is notably higher than Popyrin’s (28.64), signaling a clearer comfort on clay. Popyrin is ranked 60 with an Elo of 1642.07 and a lower form index (46.67). Fatigue is also a factor — Popyrin has accumulated 268 minutes on court in this event versus Ruud’s 178, which could matter late in rallies on clay. On serving and returning, both show high serve profiles (Popyrin 96.32, Ruud 94.87) with no large gap between them, while Popyrin’s mean return index (89.20) is meaningfully higher than Ruud’s (83.61), suggesting Popyrin is better positioned to pressure Ruud’s service games. Recent form shows parallel paths: both won two matches here in Geneva (Popyrin over Taylor Fritz and Clément Tabur; Ruud over Raphaël Collignon and Jenson Brooksby) and both fell to Jannik Sinner in Rome. Popyrin’s win over Tabur was a marathon (185 minutes), which helps explain his heavier tournament minutes and potential fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.8 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexei Popyrin - Casper Ruud) -2.7 Most likely spread: -3 (Casper Ruud wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 12.28 for the match while the predicted double faults total is 4.1. On clay, the expected double faults tend to rise and predicted aces fall because the slower surface and higher bounce give returners more time and extend rallies. Neither player holds a dominant serve-rating gap, so the predicted aces reflect a blend of powerful serving and the slowing effect of the surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.3 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexei Popyrin's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (45.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s higher Elo, better clay strength and fresher legs give him the clear edge. Watch Popyrin’s return game as the key factor — if he can convert that advantage early, he can make the contest much tighter.

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