Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alexei Popyrin vs Kamil Majchrzak: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #47
53%
VS

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #56
47%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Alexei Popyrin

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Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 24.2
ELO Rating: 919.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1668.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 78.8
Return Rating: 31.7

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 36.0
ELO Rating: 875.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1554.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 9.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 91.3

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin

  • Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Doha 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Mubarak Shannan Zayid (1-0) hard Doha 58 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexandre Muller (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Adelaide 83 min

Kamil Majchrzak

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Kamil Majchrzak
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Dubai ATP 500 hard-court event in the round of 32, Alexei Popyrin is narrowly favored to beat Kamil Majchrzak. Prediction: Popyrin to win with a 52.82% probability versus Majchrzak 47.18%, and an expected total of about 23.96 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Popyrin enters ranked 47 with an Elo of 919.82, a form index of 24.16 and a surface strength index of 7.43; cumulative fatigue is 0 minutes. Majchrzak is ranked 56 with a lower Elo of 875.47 but a higher form index (36.03) and a slightly stronger surface strength index of 8.21; his fatigue is also 0. Notable statistical gaps: Majchrzak’s mean serve index (96.80) is substantially higher than Popyrin’s (78.84), a difference of nearly 18 points, and his mean return index (91.26) dwarfs Popyrin’s 31.72 by roughly 59 points—both differences exceed 5 points and should shape patterns on serve and return games. Recent match lines show Popyrin has struggled versus top opponents (straight-set losses to Sinner and Auger-Aliassime) but recorded a shorter win over Mubarak Shannan Zayid; his wins and losses on hard courts have been mixed. Majchrzak’s recent results likewise fluctuate: a long three-set loss to Arthur Fils in Doha, earlier a straight-sets exit to Fabian Marozsan, and a strong three-set victory over Jacob Fearnley at the Australian Open. Both players have been tested over extended matches recently, though neither carries tournament fatigue into Dubai.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.0 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Alexei Popyrin versus Kamil Majchrzak. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Alexei Popyrin versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexei Popyrin - Kamil Majchrzak) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Alexei Popyrin wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Alexei Popyrin versus Kamil Majchrzak. Positive values indicate Alexei Popyrin winning more games, negative values indicate Kamil Majchrzak winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Alexei Popyrin versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 15.91 total, and the predicted aces will likely be weighted toward Majchrzak given his much higher serve index. Expected double faults are 5.94 for the match; the surface (medium-paced hard court) supports a moderate ace count while limiting extreme serve dominance. Because Majchrzak’s serve rating is significantly higher, he should contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Alexei Popyrin versus Kamil Majchrzak. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Alexei Popyrin versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Alexei Popyrin versus Kamil Majchrzak. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Alexei Popyrin versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Popyrin’s slight edge comes from higher ranking and Elo despite less impressive serve/return indices; the model gives him a narrow margin. The key factor to watch will be how Majchrzak’s powerful serve and elite return numbers influence short service games and whether Popyrin can hold serve consistently.

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