Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #14
41%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #23
59%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

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Ranking Trends

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #14 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #14 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #16 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #11 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #17 2025-05-05

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #23 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #15 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #14 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #18 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 40.2
ELO Rating: 1741.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1816.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 74.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.2
Clay: 28.2
Grass: 30.5
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 92.7

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 45.1
ELO Rating: 1730.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1749.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 114.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.8
Clay: 28.4
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 86.5

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) clay Rome 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (0-2) clay Madrid 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (0-2) clay Barcelona 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-1) clay Barcelona 118 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-0) clay Barcelona 85 min

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Andrey Rublev
vs
1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, Italy — Masters 1000, round of 32 on clay. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is forecast to prevail over Andrey Rublev, with a 59.03% chance to win versus Rublev’s 40.97%. The model predicts a relatively compact affair of about 24.95 total games.

Match Analysis

Rublev (rank 14) arrives with a slightly higher Elo (1741.9) but a lower form index (40.21) than Davidovich Fokina (rank 23, Elo 1730.7, form 45.08). Surface strength indices are nearly identical (Rublev 28.20, Davidovich 28.44), so neither player has a pronounced clay-specific edge on paper. Fatigue trends, however, favor Rublev: he has 74 minutes accumulated in this event versus Davidovich’s 114 minutes, and that extra court time on slow clay can sap legs in extended rallies. Rublev’s mean serve (96.11) and Davidovich’s (94.79) are close, so there’s no major serving gap to note, but Rublev holds a meaningful advantage in the return department (mean return 92.72 vs 86.55), a difference greater than five points and a likely factor in break opportunities. Recent form underlines the contrast: Rublev is 1-2 in his last three clay matches (notably a straight-sets win over Kecmanovic in Rome after two earlier losses), while Davidovich is 2-1, including a straight-sets victory over Cristian Garin in Rome and a prior win over Pablo Carreno Busta.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) -0.2 Most likely spread: -1 (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest — a predicted aces total of 9.94 — consistent with clay’s tendency to reduce serve speed and yield fewer outright aces. The expected double faults tally is 3.53; on clay, longer points and fatigue can push up double faults, especially for the player who has logged more minutes. Neither player has a dramatically superior serve rating to swing the predicted aces count significantly.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.9 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.5 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Andrey Rublev's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (35.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s slightly better form and recent win pattern give him the edge despite being more fatigued; Rublev’s superior return game keeps this well within reach. Watch how physicality and return pressure play out — break points and the handling of long rallies on clay will decide the match.

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