Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rublev arrives as the clear higher-ranked player (15 vs 66) with a superior Elo (1,722 vs 1,649). Sonego’s form index (60.02) is stronger on paper than Rublev’s (41.52), but Rublev’s game metrics tilt the balance: his mean serve index (97.96) outstrips Sonego’s (77.22) by over 20 points, and his mean return index (90.57) is also substantially higher than Sonego’s (63.19). Fatigue accumulated in the tournament is heavier for Sonego (156 minutes) than Rublev (112 minutes), which could matter on demanding clay courts. Surface strength indices are modest for both (Sonego 39.13, Rublev 44.30), suggesting neither is a clay specialist based on the provided metric. Recent form shows Sonego coming through a 2–1 win over Pedro Martínez in Barcelona after mixed results at the Australian Open (a straight-sets loss to Musetti and a win over Taberner). Rublev’s recent sequence is more varied: a straight-sets victory over Mariano Navone here in Barcelona, a shock 0–2 loss to Zizou Bergs in Monte Carlo, and a 2–1 win over Nuno Borges. Both have shown the capacity to close matches, but Rublev’s serving and returning indices provide a more consistent edge.