Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #16
62%
VS

Nuno Borges

Rank: #48
38%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

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Ranking Trends

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #16 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #16 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #14 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #14 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #9 2025-04-07

Nuno Borges

  • Current #48 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #45 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #51 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #37 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #43 2025-04-07

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 33.0
ELO Rating: 1728.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1808.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.3
Clay: 44.5
Grass: 46.9
Serve Rating: 77.5
Return Rating: 69.1

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 24.8
ELO Rating: 1596.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1613.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.2
Clay: 41.3
Grass: 43.0
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 89.2

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-2) hard Miami 126 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Gabriel Diallo (1-2) hard Indian Wells 172 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tallon Griekspoor (0-2) hard Dubai 105 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Dubai 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Dubai 143 min

Nuno Borges
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Damir Dzumhur (0-2) clay Bucharest 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Reilly Opelka (1-2) hard Miami 121 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Vacherot (0-2) hard Indian Wells 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (2-0) hard Indian Wells 110 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-2) hard Acapulco 90 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Andrey Rublev
vs
0
Nuno Borges
Hard
2 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Monte Carlo, Monaco — Round of 64 on clay at a masters_1000 event. The model favors Andrey Rublev to advance, with a 62.47% probability versus 37.53% for Nuno Borges. The match is expected to be relatively short by clay standards, with a predicted total of about 23.7 games.

Match Analysis

Rublev enters as the higher-ranked player (No. 16) with an Elo of 1728.9 and a form index of 32.99. He shows a modest surface strength on clay (44.53) and no cumulative fatigue from the current event. Borges, ranked 48 with an Elo of 1596.8 and a form index of 24.81, has a slightly lower clay comfort (surface strength 41.28). Notable differences in shot profiles: Borges posts a markedly higher mean serve index (97.69) than Rublev (77.53), a gap of about 20 points, and also a substantially higher mean return index (89.24 vs 69.11), both differences worth flagging for tactics and point construction. Recent results give a similar narrative for form: Rublev has lost his last three matches (Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami), all on hard courts and without wins in those outings. Borges likewise arrives off three straight defeats — losses at Bucharest (clay), Miami and Indian Wells — with only a single set won across those events. Neither player shows tournament fatigue minutes on record here, so freshness shouldn’t be a differentiator at the outset.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Andrey Rublev - Nuno Borges) +2.6 Most likely spread: +2 (Andrey Rublev wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction sits at about 9.99 for the match while the predicted aces distribution will likely be tilted toward Borges given his much higher serve index. The clay surface, however, tends to reduce ace totals because of slower ball speed and higher bounce, so the predicted aces remain modest. For double faults prediction the model expects around 5.51 expected double faults; longer rallies and the clay grind can elevate double faults, and a big-serving Borges may both generate more free points and risk more misses.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.0 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rublev’s edge stems from higher ranking, Elo and a stronger recent form index, which outweigh Borges’ standout serve and return ratings in the model. The key factor to watch is how Borges’ high serve index fares on slow clay and whether Rublev’s return game can neutralize it early in rallies.

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