Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea Prediction

Ben Shelton

Rank: #4
61%
VS

Arthur Gea

Rank: #56
39%
Expected Total Games: 24.7
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Why the Model Favors Ben Shelton

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +7.4 Ben Shelton
Overall record & opposition quality +1.8 Ben Shelton
Fatigue & recent workload +1.3 Ben Shelton
Recent form +0.9 Ben Shelton
Surface fit +0.9 Ben Shelton

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Ben Shelton. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current #4 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #5 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #8 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #8 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-09-29

Arthur Gea

  • Current #56 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #136 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #137 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #241 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #249 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 79.7
ELO Rating: 2077.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1942.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 117.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.7
Clay: 27.7
Grass: 37.0
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 87.8

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 62.8
ELO Rating: 1801.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1827.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 231.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.0
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 93.8
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Arthur Gea
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaime Faria (2-1) hard Shanghai 125 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Hubert Hurkacz (1-2) hard Beijing 143 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-0) hard Beijing 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-0) hard Beijing 77 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Arthur Gea
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Shelton is favoured over Gea, with the forecast at 61% to 39%. The match is projected to feature 24.7 games, pointing to a contest that could take time to separate them.

Match Analysis

Shelton’s clearest advantage is his overall level: he is ranked fourth to Gea’s 56th, and the forecast also gives weight to the stronger opposition he has faced. His serve should make him difficult to break on hard courts, while Gea’s return is competitive enough to keep pressure on. Gea arrives with wins over Jaime Faria and Ugo Humbert in Shanghai, so his form is credible, but Shelton also beat Daniel Altmaier in straight sets. Gea has spent 231 minutes on court this tournament, compared with 117 for Shelton, and Shelton is the more established hard-court threat.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.7 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ben Shelton - Arthur Gea) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Ben Shelton wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Shelton is projected for 8.2 aces and 2.5 double faults, while Gea is forecast at 5.5 aces and 3.4 double faults. Shelton’s stronger serve should create the ace gap, though Gea’s serve is capable of producing chances of its own on hard courts.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.3 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Ben Shelton 8.2 + Arthur Gea 5.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Ben Shelton 2.5 + Arthur Gea 3.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Ben Shelton

Expected 8.2 aces

Arthur Gea

Expected 5.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Ben Shelton

Expected 2.5 double faults

Arthur Gea

Expected 3.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ben Shelton's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (34.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Gea’s strongest path to overturning the forecast is to make his recent return level count against Shelton’s serve. If he can sustain pressure on Shelton’s service points, the fatigue gap could become less important.

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