Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Ben Shelton vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction

Ben Shelton

Rank: #7
69%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #47
31%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current Rank: #7 (2025-07-28)
  • 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-05-05)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2025-02-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #21 (2024-11-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #14 (2024-08-12)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current Rank: #47 (2025-07-28)
  • 3 Months Ago: #60 (2025-05-05)
  • 6 Months Ago: #110 (2025-02-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #106 (2024-11-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #94 (2024-08-12)

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 64.0
ELO Rating: 1884.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1745.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.3
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 15.7
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 84.2

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 47.0
ELO Rating: 801.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1569.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 97.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 88.9

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Toronto 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) hard Toronto 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-1) hard Toronto 144 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-1) hard Toronto 156 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Toronto 65 min

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Kei Nishikori (2-0) hard Cincinnati 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Roberto Carballes Baena (0-2) hard Toronto 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Umag 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz (2-0) clay Umag 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francesco Passaro (2-1) clay Umag 152 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Ben Shelton and Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 promises to be an intriguing contest on hard courts. With a predicted winner of Ben Shelton, he holds a 68.65% probability of success compared to Carabelli’s 31.35%. The anticipated total number of games played is around 23.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton, ranked 7th, boasts a strong form index of 63.99 and an Elo rating of 1884.59, indicating his current competitive prowess. Notably, he exhibits no cumulative fatigue, which positions him favorably heading into this match. His surface strength index stands at 15.34, and he possesses a mean serve index of 97.95, significantly higher than Carabelli’s 95.07. Additionally, Shelton's mean return index of 84.21 also outpaces Carabelli's 88.92, but the margin is less than 5 points, indicating that both players are capable on returns. In contrast, Camilo Ugo Carabelli, currently ranked 47th, has a form index of 46.95 and a considerably lower Elo rating of 801.90, reflecting his recent struggles. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament is at 97 minutes, which could impact his performance. Carabelli's recent matches showcase a mixed bag; he won his last match against Kei Nishikori but suffered defeats against Roberto Carballes Baena and Luciano Darderi in preceding outings. This inconsistency, coupled with his lower performance metrics, presents a challenging scenario against Shelton.

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton's higher ranking, robust recent performances, and lack of fatigue provide him with a distinct advantage going into this match. A critical factor to observe will be Shelton's serve effectiveness, as it could dictate the pace and outcome of the match against Carabelli.