Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ben Shelton

Rank: #8
59%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #13
41%
Expected Total Games: 39.7
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 91.3
ELO Rating: 3844.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1738.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.5
Clay: 30.2
Grass: 30.8
Serve Rating: 80.5
Return Rating: 55.1

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 84.2
ELO Rating: 2644.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1918.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.0
Clay: 22.1
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton

Casper Ruud

  • Last Match: vs Marin Cilic (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (0-2) hard Auckland 81 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Daniel Altmaier (0-2) hard Paris 85 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Round of 16 match at the Australian Open between Ben Shelton and Casper Ruud promises to be an exciting contest on the hard courts of Australia. With Shelton currently holding a 59.34% probability of winning, compared to Ruud's 40.66%, the match is expected to feature around 39.71 games in total.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton, ranked 8th, showcases impressive form with a form index of 91.28 and an Elo rating of 3844.80. His cumulative fatigue stands at 522 minutes, indicating a consistent performance without significant wear. Shelton’s surface strength index of 23.48 suggests he is more adept on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 80.51, which is notably lower than Ruud's mean serve index of 97.42. This 16.91-point difference indicates that Shelton may struggle to match Ruud's serving power. Furthermore, Ruud, ranked 13th, also presents a formidable return game with a mean return index of 90.59, outpacing Shelton's 55.08 by a considerable margin of 35.51 points. Both players have demonstrated solid form in their previous matches at this tournament. Shelton has won all his last three matches convincingly without dropping a set, while Ruud has also secured victories in his last three matches, albeit one of them against Cilic was a four-set battle. This suggests that Shelton is currently in a strong position, yet Ruud's experience and recent competitive matches could provide him with the momentum needed to challenge Shelton.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.7 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Ben Shelton versus Casper Ruud. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Ben Shelton versus Casper Ruud. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ben Shelton - Casper Ruud) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Casper Ruud wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Ben Shelton versus Casper Ruud. Positive values indicate Ben Shelton winning more games, negative values indicate Casper Ruud winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Ben Shelton versus Casper Ruud. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

In terms of serve outcomes, the expected total aces for the match is around 10.06, with both players capable of landing powerful serves on hard courts. Given Ruud's higher mean serve index, he may contribute more significantly to the aces prediction. Additionally, the expected double faults are around 5.63, a figure that reflects the pressure of the match and the players' serving abilities on this surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Ben Shelton versus Casper Ruud. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Ben Shelton versus Casper Ruud. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Ben Shelton versus Casper Ruud. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Ben Shelton versus Casper Ruud. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton's edge in current form and match consistency gives him a slight advantage, but the powerful serving of Casper Ruud should not be underestimated. A key factor to monitor during the match will be how well Shelton can handle Ruud's serve, especially given the notable difference in their serve indexes.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel