Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Ben Shelton vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

Ben Shelton

Rank: #6
80%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #113
20%
Predicted Games Played: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 69.0
ELO Rating: 1940.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1759.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.9
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 15.7
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 84.5

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 56.2
ELO Rating: 537.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1510.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 3.9
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 85.3

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton

  • Last Match: vs Ignacio Buse (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Cincinnati 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jiri Lehecka (2-0) hard Cincinnati 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) hard Cincinnati 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Cincinnati 63 min

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Last Match: vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Winston Salem 107 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yoshihito Nishioka (1-0) hard Winston Salem 58 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Leandro Riedi (0-2) hard Cincinnati 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (0-2) hard Toronto 88 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the 2025 US Open, Ben Shelton faces Pablo Carreno Busta on hard courts in New York, USA. With a strong probability of winning at 79.71%, Shelton is favored to advance, while Carreno Busta holds a 20.29% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 35.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton, currently ranked 6th, boasts a form index of 69.03 and an Elo rating of 1940.51, indicating a solid performance level. His fatigue is notably high at 174 minutes, but he excels on hard surfaces with a strength index of 15.88. Shelton's mean serve index is impressive at 97.97, showing a significant advantage over Carreno Busta, whose mean serve index is 94.31—an important gap of over 5 points. Both players have similar return indices, with Shelton at 84.47 and Carreno Busta at 85.30, suggesting a competitive aspect in their returning abilities. Pablo Carreno Busta, ranked 113th, has a lower form index of 56.17 and an Elo rating of 537.59, which reflects a dip in his recent performances. He has also accumulated 174 minutes of fatigue, indicating an equally taxing tournament thus far. In his last three matches, Carreno Busta managed two wins, one of which was a clean sweep against Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the US Open, while his performance at Winston-Salem was less favorable. In contrast, Shelton's recent form includes one convincing victory at the US Open, though he faced a setback against Alexander Zverev in Cincinnati.

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton's higher ranking, superior serve index, and recent form give him a significant edge over Pablo Carreno Busta in this matchup. As both players contend with equal fatigue levels, Shelton’s ability to serve effectively will be a key factor to monitor throughout the match.