Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ben Shelton

Rank: #9
65%
VS

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #56
35%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Why the Model Favors Ben Shelton

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +6.4 Ben Shelton
Overall strength +5.6 Ben Shelton
Surface fit +2.6 Ben Shelton
Age +2.3 Ben Shelton
Recent form +0.6 Ben Shelton

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Ben Shelton. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current #9 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #5 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #8 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #9 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-08-25

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current #56 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #33 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #25 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #25 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 44.1
ELO Rating: 1891.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1902.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 46.1
Clay: 27.7
Grass: 37.0
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 87.6

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 35.2
ELO Rating: 1657.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1654.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.9
Clay: 18.7
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 84.8

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Tallon Griekspoor
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Tallon Griekspoor
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This first round match at the 2026 US Open in New York is on a hard court and opens the main draw. The model projects Ben Shelton as the favorite, with a 65.34% chance to win versus 34.66% for Tallon Griekspoor. The predicted total number of games is 37.79.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Shelton comes mainly from serve and return play and overall strength. Serve and return contributed +6.4 percentage points toward Shelton, supported by his mean serve index of 98.03 and mean return index of 87.62 versus Griekspoor’s 96.74 serve and 84.84 return. Overall strength adds another +5.6 points, reflected in Shelton’s higher Elo of 1891.23 and his top 10 ranking (9) against Griekspoor’s rank of 56 and Elo of 1657.64. Surface fit also favors Shelton by +2.6 points, matching his stronger surface strength index of 46.10 compared with Griekspoor’s 34.88. Age is listed as a modest advantage for Shelton in the explainability output, adding +2.3 points. Recent form nudges Shelton ahead by +0.6 points as well. Both players arrive with zero cumulative fatigue from this event. Shelton posts a form index of 44.15 versus Griekspoor’s 35.19. Over their last three matches Shelton won two in Toronto then lost in Cincinnati in straight sets. Griekspoor recorded two notable wins in Toronto, including a win over Alexander Zverev, before a loss in his most recent match. Those patterns show both players capable of streaks, but the ratings and surface numbers tilt the projection toward Shelton.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ben Shelton - Tallon Griekspoor) +2.1 Most likely spread: +2 (Ben Shelton wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 22.54 total, with predicted aces split 12.40 for Shelton and 11.02 for Griekspoor. The double faults prediction is 8.17 total, with expected double faults 3.86 for Shelton and 4.31 for Griekspoor. On a medium paced hard court, this level of predicted aces fits the surface profile that rewards both power and consistency. The per player ace projections show a close serving duel, with Shelton at 12.40 and Griekspoor at 11.02.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 22.5 Most likely: 21 aces Per player: Ben Shelton 12.4 + Tallon Griekspoor 11.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.2 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Ben Shelton 3.9 + Tallon Griekspoor 4.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Ben Shelton

Expected 12.4 aces

Tallon Griekspoor

Expected 11.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Ben Shelton

Expected 3.9 double faults

Tallon Griekspoor

Expected 4.3 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

56.6% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ben Shelton's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (37.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shelton’s edge is driven first and foremost by serve and return metrics, supported by superior Elo and ranking. Watch his ability to convert service holds and to make returns early, since those two elements are the clearest predictors of how this match will unfold.

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