Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #92
39%
VS

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #37
61%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Arnaldi

Ranking Trends

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current Rank: #92 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #89 (2025-05-19)
  • 6 Months Ago: #87 (2025-02-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #80 (2024-11-18)
  • 12 Months Ago: #73 (2024-08-19)

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current Rank: #37 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #39 (2025-05-19)
  • 6 Months Ago: #34 (2025-02-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #37 (2024-11-18)
  • 12 Months Ago: #30 (2024-08-19)

Player Metrics

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 55.5
ELO Rating: 807.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1589.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 149.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 5.8
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 88.3

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 33.1
ELO Rating: 1177.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1619.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.6
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Botic van de Zandschulp
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-1) hard Winston Salem 149 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) clay Kitzbuhel 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Seyboth Wild (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 110 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Filip Misolic (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolas Jarry (2-1) clay Kitzbuhel 145 min

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-2) hard Cincinnati 177 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) hard Toronto 166 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-1) hard Toronto 129 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Washington 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Washington 126 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Botic van de Zandschulp
vs
0
Matteo Arnaldi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Winston-Salem tournament, set on hard courts in North Carolina, Botic van de Zandschulp faces Matteo Arnaldi. The predicted winner is Matteo Arnaldi, with a 60.55% probability of winning, while Botic van de Zandschulp holds a 39.45% chance. The match is expected to feature approximately 23 total games.

Match Analysis

Botic van de Zandschulp, currently ranked 92, has a form index of 55.48 and an Elo rating of 807.45. With a cumulative fatigue of 149 minutes from his current tournament and a solid surface strength index of 8.46, he appears to be in decent shape. However, his mean serve index of 96.34 is marginally better than Arnaldi's 95.48, indicating a slight edge in serving capabilities. On the other hand, Arnaldi, ranked 37, has a lower form index of 33.10 but boasts a significantly higher Elo rating of 1177.59. Notably, Arnaldi's surface strength index of 11.62 suggests he is particularly well-suited to hard courts. In their recent performances, van de Zandschulp managed to secure a win against Adam Walton in his last outing, which lasted 149 minutes. However, he lost to Alexander Bublik prior and had a victory against Thiago Seyboth Wild in the same tournament. In contrast, Arnaldi's recent matches have been challenging; he lost to both Benjamin Bonzi and Alexander Zverev, but he did manage a win against Tristan Schoolkate in a prior match, albeit with inconsistent results overall.

Final Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and optimal surface strength give him a competitive advantage in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of both players' serves, especially given the close mean serve indices, which could influence the outcome significantly.