Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #22
45%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #7
55%
Expected Total Games: 26.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +5.5 Brandon Nakashima
Surface fit +5.0 Daniil Medvedev
Recent record by level +4.4 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +3.0 Daniil Medvedev
Age +2.1 Brandon Nakashima

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #22 2026-08-10
  • 3 mo ago #32 2026-05-04
  • 6 mo ago #29 2026-02-09
  • 9 mo ago #33 2025-11-10
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-08-18

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #7 2026-08-10
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-05-04
  • 6 mo ago #11 2026-02-09
  • 9 mo ago #13 2025-11-10
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-08-18

Player Metrics

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 71.7
ELO Rating: 1850.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1830.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 81.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.2
Clay: 19.4
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 88.3

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 41.3
ELO Rating: 1791.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1896.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 106.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.7
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.2

Recent Matches

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marco Trungelliti (2-0) hard Cincinnati 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Toronto 99 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Merida (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Brandon Nakashima
vs
2
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cincinnati, Ohio. Round of 32 on outdoor hard courts at a Masters 1000. The model favors Daniil Medvedev to win. Predicted probabilities are 55.38% for Medvedev and 44.62% for Brandon Nakashima. The model expects about 26.0 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Medvedev is driven mainly by surface fit, his recent record at higher level events, and overall strength, while Nakashima’s recent form and youth narrow the gap. Brandon Nakashima brings a strong short-term profile, with a form index of 71.65 and an Elo of 1850.80. He has played 81 minutes so far in Cincinnati, with a surface strength index of 39.23. Daniil Medvedev sits higher in the rankings at 7, has a surface strength index of 48.67, an Elo of 1791.29, and has accumulated 106 minutes on court this week. Fatigue slightly favors Nakashima given Medvedev’s heavier minutes. Serve and return metrics are close. Nakashima’s mean serve index is 97.84 and Medvedev’s is 96.10. Nakashima’s mean return index is 88.28 and Medvedev’s is 89.23. Those differences are small and do not meaningfully separate the players. Over the last three matches Nakashima is 2 wins and 1 loss, including a straight sets win over Aleksandar Kovacevic in Cincinnati and a loss to Ben Shelton in Toronto. Medvedev is 1 win and 2 losses in his last three, with a Cincinnati win over Marco Trungelliti and recent defeats in Toronto and at Wimbledon.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.0 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Brandon Nakashima - Daniil Medvedev) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Daniil Medvedev wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 15.65 total. The predicted aces reflect two players with strong serving profiles on a medium-paced hard court. The double faults prediction is an expected double faults total of 6.54. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, though Nakashima’s serve index is marginally higher. The hard surface should produce a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.7 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.5 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Brandon Nakashima's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (30.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medvedev’s edge comes largely from his better surface fit for hard courts and his recent record at higher level events. The key factor to watch is whether Nakashima’s strong recent form can translate into pressure on Medvedev’s service games early in sets.

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