Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Raphael Collignon vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Raphael Collignon

Rank: #86
28%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #29
72%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

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Ranking Trends

Raphael Collignon

  • Current #86 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #122 2025-02-17
  • 6 mo ago #122 2024-11-18
  • 9 mo ago #212 2024-08-19
  • 12 mo ago #458 2024-05-20

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #29 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #41 2025-02-17
  • 6 mo ago #38 2024-11-18
  • 9 mo ago #48 2024-08-19
  • 12 mo ago #68 2024-05-20

Player Metrics

Raphael Collignon

Form Index: 45.3
ELO Rating: 467.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1513.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 168.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.0
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 92.6

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 33.6
ELO Rating: 1285.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.4
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 84.0

Recent Matches

Raphael Collignon
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Dutra da Silva (2-0) clay Hamburg 66 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Zahraj (2-0) clay Hamburg 102 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (0-2) clay Rome 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (1-2) clay Marrakech 119 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabio Fognini (2-0) clay Marrakech 82 min

Brandon Nakashima
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Raphael Collignon
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Hamburg tournament, Raphael Collignon faces off against Brandon Nakashima on clay. Given the current form and statistics of both players, Nakashima is predicted to win, with a probability of 71.54% compared to Collignon's 28.46%. The expected total number of games played in this match is estimated to be around 22.

Match Analysis

Brandon Nakashima, ranked 29th globally, boasts a significantly higher Elo rating of 1285.22, compared to Collignon's 467.69. Despite both players competing on clay, Nakashima’s surface strength index of 11.15 far exceeds Collignon's 4.52, indicating greater proficiency on this surface. Additionally, while their mean serve indices are closely matched (Nakashima at 96.88 and Collignon at 97.10), Nakashima's mean return index of 83.95 lags behind Collignon's 92.63 by over 5 points, signaling a potential vulnerability on return games for Nakashima. In their recent performances, Collignon has shown resilience by winning his last two matches in Hamburg, demonstrating a solid form index of 45.35. However, he does carry a cumulative fatigue of 168 minutes from the current tournament. On the other hand, Nakashima has faced tough competition recently, losing his last three matches, including a notable defeat to Lorenzo Musetti. His form index stands at 33.57, but with no cumulative fatigue, he enters this match fresh, which could be pivotal.

Final Prediction

Brandon Nakashima's higher ranking, Elo rating, and lack of fatigue contribute to his favorable position heading into this match against Raphael Collignon. The key factor to watch will be Nakashima's ability to improve his return game, which could significantly impact the match's dynamics.

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