Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #60
62%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #98
38%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 35.2
ELO Rating: 764.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1566.9
Minutes Played in Current Tournament: 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 6.1
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 88.7

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 34.1
ELO Rating: 403.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1504.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 236.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 3.1
Grass: 3.1
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Last Match: vs Christopher O'Connell (0-2) clay Madrid 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexandre Muller (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Filip Misolic (0-2) clay Bucharest 71 min

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Last Match: vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (1-2) clay Rome 140 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-0) clay Rome 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (1-2) clay Madrid 152 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (0-2) clay Barcelona 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Tallon Griekspoor (1-2) clay Marrakech 143 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the prestigious Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is set to face Pablo Carreno Busta on the clay surface. The prediction favors Carabelli with a winning probability of 61.73%, while Carreno Busta stands at 38.27%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 22 games played.

Match Analysis

Camilo Ugo Carabelli, currently ranked 60th, displays a solid form index of 35.20 and an Elo rating of approximately 764.91. His fatigue level is at 0 minutes, indicating he comes into this match fresh. With a surface strength index of 6.11 and a mean serve index of 96.51, his serve is notably strong. Additionally, his mean return index of 88.70 gives him an edge in return games. Conversely, Pablo Carreno Busta, ranked 98th, has a lower form index of 34.15 and an Elo rating of 403.27. His cumulative fatigue is significantly higher at 236 minutes, which may impact his performance. His surface strength index stands at 3.12, and while his mean serve index of 94.71 is competitive, it falls short in comparison to Carabelli's serve. In their recent matches, Carabelli has had mixed results, having won one out of his last three encounters, with his last match against Christopher O'Connell resulting in a loss. Carreno Busta has also struggled, winning only one of his last three matches, with a recent loss to Roman Andres Burruchaga despite a more extensive match duration. Both players' recent performances indicate a struggle for consistency, but Carabelli's higher ranking and fresher condition may serve him well in this matchup.

Final Prediction

Camilo Ugo Carabelli appears to have the upper hand in this contest, thanks to his superior serve and fresher state compared to Carreno Busta. A key factor to watch will be Carabelli's ability to leverage his strong serve early in the match, which could dictate the pace and flow of the game.