Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Quarterfinals

Cameron Norrie vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #61
19%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
81%
Predicted Games Played: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 88.9
ELO Rating: 1392.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1717.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 11.3
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.4

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 93.4
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2364.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie

  • Last Match: vs Nicolas Jarry (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Billy Harris (0-2) grass Eastbourne 84 min

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Oliver Tarvet (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Fabio Fognini (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) grass London 128 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Cameron Norrie
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinal match at Wimbledon in 2025 features British player Cameron Norrie facing off against the formidable Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz on grass. With a significant edge in the rankings and form, Alcaraz is predicted to win with an 80.67% probability, while Norrie's chances stand at 19.33%. The forecast suggests a total of approximately 35 games played in this encounter.

Match Analysis

Cameron Norrie currently ranks 61st and possesses a form index of 88.94, alongside an Elo rating of 1392.90. His fatigue level is at 696 minutes, which reflects a consistent tournament run. Norrie's surface strength index is a modest 11.08, indicating limited effectiveness on grass compared to his opponent. In contrast, Carlos Alcaraz holds a remarkable rank of 2, with a form index of 93.35 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 6661.20. Both players have identical fatigue levels, but Alcaraz's surface strength index stands at 58.91, showcasing his adeptness on grass. Notably, Norrie's mean serve index of 96.94 exceeds Alcaraz's 94.61 by over 5 points, yet the difference in return index, with Norrie at 88.40 and Alcaraz at 87.50, is less pronounced. In their recent performances, Norrie has demonstrated resilience, winning his last three matches against solid opponents, including a five-set battle against Nicolas Jarry. Alcaraz, on the other hand, has been in dominant form, securing victories in straight sets against Jan-Lennard Struff and Oliver Tarvet, with a single set lost to Andrey Rublev in his most recent outing. Both players have shown their capability to perform under pressure, but Alcaraz's consistency and experience at the highest levels set him apart.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior ranking, form, and grass-court prowess give him a distinct advantage over Cameron Norrie in this quarterfinal match. A key factor to monitor will be how well Norrie can leverage his strong serve against Alcaraz's return game, which could determine the match's momentum.