Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
85%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #46
15%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Why the Model Favors Carlos Alcaraz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +11.2 Carlos Alcaraz
Overall strength +11.2 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent record by level +8.6 Carlos Alcaraz
Overall record & opposition quality +4.8 Carlos Alcaraz
Serve & return game +1.8 Denis Shapovalov

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 85% for Carlos Alcaraz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #2 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #1 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #1 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-09-29

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #46 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #38 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #23 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #24 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 54.3
ELO Rating: 2323.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2632.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 256.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 63.2
Clay: 95.5
Grass: 97.6
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 93.7

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 55.3
ELO Rating: 1714.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1730.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 215.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.5
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 9.1
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-0) hard Tokio 105 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-1) hard Tokio 151 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Denis Shapovalov
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Carlos Alcaraz is a clear favorite in the Quarterfinals in Tokyo, with the forecast giving him 85% to Denis Shapovalov’s 15%. It projects 22.4 games.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is on hard court: Alcaraz has been much more effective on the surface and is also the substantially stronger player overall, reflected in the ranking gap from No. 3 to No. 46. His return gives him a way to pressure Shapovalov beyond relying on his own service games. Both have won their two matches in Tokyo. Alcaraz beat Matteo Arnaldi in straight sets after a three-set win over Alex Michelsen, while Shapovalov needed three sets against Alejandro Tabilo after a straight-set win over Sho Shimabukuro. Shapovalov’s serve and return offer a modest counterweight, but Alcaraz’s stronger record on hard courts is a more substantial advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Denis Shapovalov) +4.0 Most likely spread: +4 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Shapovalov is projected for 4.7 aces and 4.3 double faults, compared with Alcaraz at 3.9 aces and 2.4 double faults. Both have strong serve profiles, but Shapovalov’s higher expected ace count comes with more projected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.6 Most likely: 6 aces Per player: Carlos Alcaraz 3.9 + Denis Shapovalov 4.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Carlos Alcaraz 2.4 + Denis Shapovalov 4.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 3.9 aces

Denis Shapovalov

Expected 4.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 2.4 double faults

Denis Shapovalov

Expected 4.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

30.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Carlos Alcaraz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (50.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shapovalov’s best chance is to make his slight serve-and-return advantage count by putting pressure on Alcaraz’s service games. If he cannot sustain that pressure, Alcaraz’s stronger hard-court results should prove decisive.

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