Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 128

Fabio Fognini vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Fabio Fognini

Rank: #138
4%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
96%
Predicted Games Played: 32.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Fabio Fognini

  • Current Rank: #138 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #99 (2025-03-31)
  • 6 Months Ago: #91 (2024-12-30)
  • 9 Months Ago: #81 (2024-09-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #94 (2024-07-01)

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-03-31)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2024-12-30)
  • 9 Months Ago: #2 (2024-09-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-07-01)

Player Metrics

Fabio Fognini

Form Index: 12.2
ELO Rating: 540.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1536.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 5.4
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.7

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 78.8
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2363.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Fabio Fognini
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (1-2) grass Mallorca 107 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (1-2) grass Stuttgart 131 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (0-2) clay Rome 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Laslo Djere (0-2) clay Madrid 67 min

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) grass London 128 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) grass London 89 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) grass London 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) grass London 203 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) grass London 102 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Fabio Fognini
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The first-round match at Wimbledon between Fabio Fognini and Carlos Alcaraz promises to showcase a significant clash of talent and form on the grass courts of Great Britain. With Alcaraz currently ranked 2nd and Fognini at 138th, the odds heavily favor Alcaraz, who holds a win probability of 96.09% compared to Fognini's 3.91%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is estimated to be around 32.

Match Analysis

Fabio Fognini has struggled recently, evidenced by his ranking of 138 and a form index of 12.19, indicating a concerning dip in performance. His Elo rating is significantly lower at 540.76, reflecting his current standing in the game. On the other hand, Carlos Alcaraz is in formidable shape, with a rank of 2 and a high form index of 78.79. His Elo rating of 6661.20 further underscores his elite status. Both players exhibit no cumulative fatigue, having not spent excessive time on court in the current tournament. Alcaraz boasts a surface strength index of 58.91, vastly outperforming Fognini's 6.30, suggesting that he is far more adept at playing on grass. Additionally, the difference in mean serve index is minimal (94.87 for Alcaraz compared to 96.79 for Fognini), but Alcaraz's mean return index of 87.65 is lower than Fognini's 88.69, showing a slight advantage for Fognini in return situations. However, Alcaraz's overall game quality and recent performances are compelling; he has won all his last three matches convincingly, while Fognini lost two of his last three encounters.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior form, ranking, and recent performances provide him with a distinct advantage in this matchup against Fabio Fognini. The key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's ability to maintain pressure on Fognini’s serve, which could ultimately dictate the pace of the match.