Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Alcaraz comes mainly from overall strength and recent record by level, with surface fit and serve and return contributing as well. That is reflected in the raw numbers. Alcaraz enters as world rank 3 with an Elo of 2431.4 and a surface strength index of 66.53. Faria is ranked 70 with an Elo of 1793.8 and a surface strength index of 32.20. Those gaps drive the largest portions of the prediction toward Alcaraz. Serve and return metrics favor Alcaraz modestly. Both players post high mean serve indexes, 96.95 for Alcaraz and 95.33 for Faria, and both have strong return indexes, 91.72 and 88.61 respectively. Fatigue is identical on paper, 174 minutes in the tournament for each player, so recent match length is not a differentiator here. Form indices show Faria at 67.01 and Alcaraz at 50.14, which captures Faria gaining confidence from recent wins. Looking at recent results, Alcaraz has won his last two matches including a straight sets win at this event, and he split results across clay and hard in his prior three. Faria also arrives with momentum from a long five set victory at the Open, plus a recent win and a loss in Cincinnati.