Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 32

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #125
13%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
87%
Expected Total Games: 34.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #125 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #49 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #42 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #39 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #41 2024-07-01

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #2 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #3 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #2 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-07-01

Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 60.2
ELO Rating: 1068.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1623.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 11.0
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 85.0

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 88.0
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2363.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Oliver Tarvet (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Fabio Fognini (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) grass London 128 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) grass London 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) grass London 80 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
1
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 32 at Wimbledon presents an intriguing clash between Jan-Lennard Struff and Carlos Alcaraz on the iconic grass surface. With Alcaraz ranked 2nd and Struff at 125th, the matchup heavily favors the Spaniard, who has an 86.66% probability of winning compared to Struff's 13.34%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated at 34.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz boasts a significantly higher rank and Elo rating (2nd and 6661) compared to Jan-Lennard Struff (125th and 1068). Alcaraz's form index of 87.98 showcases his current peak performance, while Struff's form index of 60.17 suggests he has been struggling to find consistency. Both players share the same cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes in this tournament, indicating they have faced similar physical demands. However, Alcaraz holds a notable advantage with a surface strength index of 58.91 against Struff's 12.07, showcasing his proficiency on grass. When examining their recent performances, Alcaraz has won his last three matches convincingly, including straight-set victories in his last two matches at Wimbledon, indicating he is in formidable form. In contrast, Struff's recent results include a mix of wins and losses, having suffered a defeat against Lorenzo Sonego in his last outing before Wimbledon. Struff did manage to claim victories in his earlier rounds but required five sets against a lower-ranked opponent, indicating potential vulnerabilities.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior ranking, form, and historical performance on grass give him a distinct edge in this matchup against Jan-Lennard Struff. A key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's ability to maintain his aggressive playing style and capitalize on Struff's weaker return index, which could determine the flow of the match.

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