Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
85%
VS

Jaume Munar

Rank: #64
15%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Why the Model Favors Carlos Alcaraz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +12.5 Carlos Alcaraz
Surface fit +12.0 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent record by level +9.8 Carlos Alcaraz
Overall record & opposition quality +5.5 Carlos Alcaraz
Serve & return game +2.6 Jaume Munar

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 85% for Carlos Alcaraz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #2 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #1 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #1 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-09-29

Jaume Munar

  • Current #64 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #44 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #37 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #33 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #41 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 56.8
ELO Rating: 2325.8
Glicko2 Rating: 2632.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 338.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 63.6
Clay: 95.5
Grass: 97.6
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 93.7

Jaume Munar

Form Index: 55.8
ELO Rating: 1752.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1748.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 562.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.8
Clay: 15.9
Grass: 20.2
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Jaume Munar
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Jaume Munar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alcaraz is a strong favourite, with the forecast giving him 85% to Munar’s 15%. The expected match total is 22.8 games.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz’s ranking and hard-court results point to a substantial overall advantage. He has won all three matches in Tokyo, including a victory over Denis Shapovalov, and is projected to be the stronger returner on a surface that suits him better. Munar also arrives with three wins, including a victory over Taylor Fritz, so he has shown he can beat a high-ranked opponent here. But he has spent 562 minutes on court this tournament, compared with Alcaraz’s 338, and Munar’s serve-return game is the main counterweight to Alcaraz’s broader advantages.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Jaume Munar) +3.2 Most likely spread: +3 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Alcaraz is projected to hit 4.4 aces and 2.1 double faults, while Munar is projected for 3.1 aces and 2.3 double faults. Alcaraz’s slight ace advantage fits the stronger serve profile, though the hard court’s consistent bounce should also give both players chances to return.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.4 Most likely: 5 aces Per player: Carlos Alcaraz 4.4 + Jaume Munar 3.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Carlos Alcaraz 2.1 + Jaume Munar 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 4.4 aces

Jaume Munar

Expected 3.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 2.1 double faults

Jaume Munar

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

26.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Carlos Alcaraz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (51.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Munar’s serve-return game is the specific matchup factor that could narrow the gap if he can put sustained pressure on Alcaraz’s service games. Alcaraz’s stronger hard-court profile and lighter workload make him the more likely winner.

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