Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 16

Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #24
25%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
75%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #24 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #20 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #19 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #22 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #18 2024-05-06

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #3 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #3 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 55.0
ELO Rating: 2051.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1746.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 221.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.6
Clay: 19.8
Grass: 18.3
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 85.2

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 64.8
ELO Rating: 6405.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2356.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 185.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.3
Clay: 61.5
Grass: 62.0
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Laslo Djere (2-0) clay Rome 103 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Dusan Lajovic (2-0) clay Rome 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (0-2) clay Barcelona 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) clay Barcelona 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) clay Barcelona 99 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Karen Khachanov
vs
1
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Karen Khachanov and Carlos Alcaraz in the Round of 16 at the Rome Masters 1000 tournament will be played on clay. Alcaraz, currently ranked 3rd, is favored to win with a probability of 74.81%, while Khachanov, ranked 24th, has a 25.19% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Both players bring different strengths to the court. Carlos Alcaraz's Elo rating of 6405.20 and a form index of 64.75 indicate his high competitive level, especially on clay where he holds a surface strength index of 61.49. In contrast, Karen Khachanov’s Elo rating stands at 2051.21, with a form index of 55.04 and a lower surface strength index of 19.78. The significant difference in their serve indices, with Khachanov at 97.04 compared to Alcaraz’s 95.15, does not surpass the 5-point threshold, but Alcaraz's return index of 88.06 is notably higher than Khachanov’s 85.22. In their recent performances, Alcaraz has shown consistent form, winning all three of his last matches, including two straight-sets victories in the current tournament. His only recent loss came in Barcelona against Holger Rune. Conversely, Khachanov has also secured two wins in Rome but suffered a loss to Tommy Paul in Madrid. His cumulative fatigue of 221.0 minutes, compared to Alcaraz’s 185.0, may also impact his performance as the match progresses.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior ranking, form, and return capabilities give him a distinct advantage going into this match. A key factor to watch will be Alcaraz’s ability to capitalize on Khachanov's fatigue and his own strong return game, which could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.

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