Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #95
14%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
86%
Expected Total Games: 22.3
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Why the Model Favors Carlos Alcaraz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +14.4 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent record by level +8.8 Carlos Alcaraz
Surface fit +8.1 Carlos Alcaraz
Age +3.2 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent form +2.0 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 86% for Carlos Alcaraz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #95 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #133 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #120 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #105 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #95 2025-10-27

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #3 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #2 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #1 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 67.1
ELO Rating: 1730.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1742.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.6
Clay: 23.3
Grass: 11.5
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 89.2

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 49.5
ELO Rating: 2233.5
Glicko2 Rating: 2611.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 124.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.6
Clay: 95.5
Grass: 97.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 91.7

Recent Matches

Nikoloz Basilashvili
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alcaraz is heavily favoured in this Vienna Round of 16 match, taking 86% of the win probability to Basilashvili’s 14%. The forecast is for 22.3 total games.

Match Analysis

The gap in overall level is substantial: Alcaraz is ranked third, while Basilashvili is 95th, and Alcaraz has the stronger return game. His advantage on hard courts also matters, giving him a better foundation in the rallies and on return. Basilashvili brings a strong counterpoint in recent form, with three straight wins, including a victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Both players reached this round with straight-set wins, against Jurij Rodionov and Karen Khachanov respectively. Alcaraz did lose to Zizou Bergs in Shanghai, but his broader level and surface fit still make him the clear favourite.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.3 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nikoloz Basilashvili - Carlos Alcaraz) -5.5 Most likely spread: -6 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Basilashvili is projected for 6.2 aces and 3.3 double faults, while Alcaraz is expected to hit 6.2 aces and 2.6 double faults. Their serve strength is similar, but Alcaraz’s stronger return could put more pressure on Basilashvili’s second serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.2 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Nikoloz Basilashvili 6.2 + Carlos Alcaraz 6.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Nikoloz Basilashvili 3.3 + Carlos Alcaraz 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 6.2 aces

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 6.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 3.3 double faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Nikoloz Basilashvili's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (64.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Basilashvili’s recent run gives him a credible route to make this closer than the ranking gap suggests. If his aggressive tennis keeps Alcaraz from using his return advantage, the forecast could be tested.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel