Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ruud arrives as the higher-ranked player (15 vs 24) with a superior Elo (1782.5 vs 1734.4) and a slightly better form index (60.98 vs 57.36). Fatigue levels are comparable — 65 minutes for Ruud and 67 for Davidovich — while surface strength indices are close but favor Ruud (47.26 vs 44.20). The serving and returning profiles show a clear imbalance: Ruud’s mean serve index (97.39) comfortably outpaces Davidovich’s (70.64) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (86.09) is also substantially higher than Davidovich’s (67.64). Those gaps suggest Ruud will be favored on both serve holds and returning opportunities. Recent form backs a competitive encounter. Davidovich won his Madrid opener in 67 minutes against Pablo Carreño Busta but had two losses earlier in the season — straight-set defeats at Miami and Indian Wells, both longer matches. Ruud has been more consistent on clay recently: a straight-set Madrid win over Jaume Munar and mixed results in Monte Carlo (a win over Corentin Moutet, a loss to Félix Auger-Aliassime). Both players have had multiple matches this clay swing, so match fitness is similar heading into this tie.