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Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Casper Ruud

Rank: #23
25%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
75%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Why the Model Favors Carlos Alcaraz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +13.6 Carlos Alcaraz
Surface fit +8.8 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent record by level +7.4 Carlos Alcaraz
Serve & return game +4.7 Casper Ruud
Recent form +2.6 Casper Ruud

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 75% for Carlos Alcaraz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Casper Ruud

  • Current #23 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #14 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #25 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #10 2025-11-03

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #2 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #2 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #1 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #2 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 70.0
ELO Rating: 1913.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1866.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 293.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.9
Clay: 42.8
Grass: 22.2
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 90.0

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 65.8
ELO Rating: 2278.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2613.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 264.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 64.9
Clay: 95.5
Grass: 97.6
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 90.9

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Casper Ruud
vs
2
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Carlos Alcaraz is favored, with a 75% chance of winning against Casper Ruud’s 26%. The match is projected to last 22.9 games.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz’s stronger overall level and better hard-court fit are the main reasons he is favored. He is ranked third to Ruud’s 23rd, and the surface comparison also points his way. Ruud’s serve-and-return game is the main counterweight, and his recent form has been excellent. He has won all three of his matches in straight sets, most recently against Nuno Borges, while Alcaraz had to go three sets to beat Taylor Fritz. Alcaraz’s broader advantage at this level keeps him the pick, but Ruud’s run gives him a solid platform.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Casper Ruud - Carlos Alcaraz) -3.8 Most likely spread: -4 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Ruud is projected for 6.1 aces and 2.1 double faults, compared with 5.7 aces and 2.7 double faults for Alcaraz. Ruud’s slightly stronger serving profile supports his small projected ace advantage, while Alcaraz is forecast to produce more double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.6 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Casper Ruud 6.1 + Carlos Alcaraz 5.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Casper Ruud 2.1 + Carlos Alcaraz 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Casper Ruud

Expected 6.1 aces

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 5.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Casper Ruud

Expected 2.1 double faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Casper Ruud's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (48.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s serve-and-return game could make the difference if he can carry the clean execution of his first three rounds into this semifinal. Alcaraz’s superior hard-court profile gives him more room to absorb that challenge.

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