Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Matteo Berrettini vs Casper Ruud Prediction

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #30
42%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #7
58%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

Player Metrics

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 50.0
ELO Rating: 1704.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1618.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 116.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.8
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 12.7
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 84.6

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 64.3
ELO Rating: 3682.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1799.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 116.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.2
Clay: 34.3
Grass: 36.9
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Matteo Berrettini

  • Last Match: vs Jacob Fearnley (2-0) clay Rome 116 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (0-1) clay Madrid 58 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-1) clay Madrid 154 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 148 min

Casper Ruud

  • Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (2-1) clay Rome 116 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (2-1) clay Madrid 149 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-0) clay Madrid 114 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (2-0) clay Madrid 100 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) clay Madrid 96 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Berrettini
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Matteo Berrettini and Casper Ruud in the Round of 32 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome promises to be an intriguing contest on the clay surface. With Berrettini ranked 30th and Ruud at 7th, the match is expected to favor the higher-ranked player. Casper Ruud is predicted to win with a probability of 57.77%, compared to Berrettini’s 42.23%, and a total of 24 games is anticipated to be played.

Match Analysis

Matteo Berrettini, currently ranked 30th, has a form index of 49.98 and an Elo rating of approximately 1705. His fatigue level stands at 116 minutes, reflecting his recent match play. On clay, Berrettini's surface strength index is 14.45, indicating he has room for improvement on this surface. His mean serve index is impressive at 98.34, which shows his serving capabilities, but his mean return index of 84.65 lags slightly behind, leaving him vulnerable. In contrast, Casper Ruud, ranked 7th, boasts a stronger form index of 64.32 and a significantly higher Elo rating of about 3682. His fatigue is also at 116 minutes, but he brings a higher surface strength index of 34.32 and a competitive mean serve index of 95.77, alongside a superior mean return index of 86.03. The difference of over 5 points in mean return index suggests Ruud has an edge in returning serves effectively. Both players have demonstrated solid performances in their recent matches, with Ruud winning all three of his matches in Madrid and his first match in Rome, while Berrettini's mixed results include a recent victory against Jacob Fearnley but a loss to Jack Draper.

Final Prediction

Casper Ruud's higher ranking, better form, and superior returning ability provide him with a distinct advantage going into this match. The key factor to watch will be Berrettini's serve; if he can capitalize on his strong serving to minimize Ruud's return game, he may stand a chance to disrupt the expected outcome.