Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Casper Ruud vs Shintaro Mochizuki Prediction

Casper Ruud

Rank: #12
73%
VS

Shintaro Mochizuki

Rank: #105
27%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 44.7
ELO Rating: 3109.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1779.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.9
Clay: 30.6
Grass: 34.9
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 85.7

Shintaro Mochizuki

Form Index: 75.7
ELO Rating: 545.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1569.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.2
Clay: 4.2
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 93.2
Return Rating: 90.4

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud

  • Last Match: vs Raphael Collignon (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Sebastian Ofner (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-2) hard Cincinnati 157 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (0-2) hard Toronto 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Toronto 102 min

Shintaro Mochizuki

  • Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Daniel Elahi Galan (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jurij Rodionov (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Coleman Wong (0-2) hard Cincinnati 121 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Casper Ruud
vs
0
Shintaro Mochizuki
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Tokyo tournament, held on hard courts, Casper Ruud is set to face Shintaro Mochizuki. With a predicted win probability of 73.29% for Ruud compared to 26.71% for Mochizuki, the expected total number of games played in this match is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud, currently ranked 12th, holds a form index of 44.66 and an Elo rating of 3109.39, which indicates a strong competitive standing. His surface strength index is notable at 18.90, reflecting his capacity on hard courts. Comparatively, Shintaro Mochizuki is ranked 105th with a form index of 75.69 and an Elo rating of 545.10, suggesting a lower competitive edge. His surface strength index is significantly lower at 4.23. Additionally, Ruud boasts a mean serve index of 96.85, surpassing Mochizuki's 93.23 by more than 5 points, which could prove decisive in their matchup. However, Mochizuki has a slightly better mean return index at 90.39 versus Ruud's 85.71, but the gap is not as pronounced. Analyzing recent performances, Ruud has faced challenges, winning only one of his last three matches, including a tough loss against Raphael Collignon at the US Open. In contrast, Mochizuki has shown resilience, managing two wins in his last three matches, although his most recent outing ended in defeat against Alex de Minaur. Both players have experienced tough matches, but Mochizuki’s recent victories indicate he possesses the capability to compete effectively.

Final Prediction

Casper Ruud's higher rank, stronger surface performance, and superior serve index give him a notable advantage heading into this match. However, Mochizuki's recent form and competitive spirit could make for an interesting contest, particularly in the return game. Observing how Ruud handles Mochizuki's returning capabilities will be crucial to the outcome.