Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Corentin Moutet vs Alexander Zverev Prediction

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #39
28%
VS

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
72%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

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Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #39 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #83 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #76 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #70 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #72 2024-09-30

Alexander Zverev

  • Current #3 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #2 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #2 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-09-30

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 51.3
ELO Rating: 1192.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1635.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 109.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.3
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 88.6

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 60.8
ELO Rating: 5854.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1880.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 90.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.7
Clay: 54.0
Grass: 59.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Alexander Zverev
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
1
Alexander Zverev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

The round of 16 match in the Beijing tournament sees Corentin Moutet face off against Alexander Zverev on hard court. With Zverev ranked 3rd and Moutet at 39th, the predicted winner is Zverev, with a probability of winning set at 72.17% compared to Moutet's 27.83%. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Alexander Zverev boasts a significant advantage in several key metrics. Ranked 3rd globally, his form index stands at 60.78, while Moutet’s rank of 39 and form index of 51.32 indicate a disparity in current performance levels. Zverev’s Elo rating of 5854.05 further emphasizes his status as a top competitor, compared to Moutet’s 1192.07. Both players have shown some fatigue, with Zverev at 90 minutes and Moutet at 109 minutes, but Zverev's superior surface strength index of 52.70 compared to Moutet's 9.31 signals a stronger capability on hard surfaces. In their recent performances, Zverev has won two out of his last three matches, including a straightforward victory against Lorenzo Sonego in Beijing. Moutet's recent form has been mixed, with a win against Tallon Griekspoor followed by a loss to Valentin Royer and a win against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Notably, Zverev's mean serve index of 96.51 exceeds Moutet's 96.31, but the difference is marginal. However, Zverev's mean return index of 87.74 is notably higher than Moutet's 88.61, indicating a slight edge in return capabilities.

Final Prediction

Zverev's higher ranking, better recent form, and superior metrics suggest he has the upper hand in this matchup against Moutet. A key factor to watch will be Zverev's serve; if he can maintain his serving efficiency, it could prove decisive in securing a smooth progression into the quarter-finals.

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