Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Corentin Moutet vs Alexander Zverev Prediction

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #39
28%
VS

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
72%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current Rank: #39 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #83 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #76 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #70 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #72 (2024-09-30)

Alexander Zverev

  • Current Rank: #3 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #2 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #2 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 51.3
ELO Rating: 1192.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1635.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 109.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.3
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 88.6

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 60.8
ELO Rating: 5854.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1880.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 90.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.7
Clay: 54.0
Grass: 59.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-0) hard Beijing 109 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Royer (0-2) hard Hangzhou 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-1) hard Hangzhou 68 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Cazaux (2-1) hard Hangzhou 227 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jordan Thompson (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Alexander Zverev
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Beijing 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Cincinnati 105 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-0) hard Cincinnati 77 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
1
Alexander Zverev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

The round of 16 match in the Beijing tournament sees Corentin Moutet face off against Alexander Zverev on hard court. With Zverev ranked 3rd and Moutet at 39th, the predicted winner is Zverev, with a probability of winning set at 72.17% compared to Moutet's 27.83%. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Alexander Zverev boasts a significant advantage in several key metrics. Ranked 3rd globally, his form index stands at 60.78, while Moutet’s rank of 39 and form index of 51.32 indicate a disparity in current performance levels. Zverev’s Elo rating of 5854.05 further emphasizes his status as a top competitor, compared to Moutet’s 1192.07. Both players have shown some fatigue, with Zverev at 90 minutes and Moutet at 109 minutes, but Zverev's superior surface strength index of 52.70 compared to Moutet's 9.31 signals a stronger capability on hard surfaces. In their recent performances, Zverev has won two out of his last three matches, including a straightforward victory against Lorenzo Sonego in Beijing. Moutet's recent form has been mixed, with a win against Tallon Griekspoor followed by a loss to Valentin Royer and a win against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Notably, Zverev's mean serve index of 96.51 exceeds Moutet's 96.31, but the difference is marginal. However, Zverev's mean return index of 87.74 is notably higher than Moutet's 88.61, indicating a slight edge in return capabilities.

Final Prediction

Zverev's higher ranking, better recent form, and superior metrics suggest he has the upper hand in this matchup against Moutet. A key factor to watch will be Zverev's serve; if he can maintain his serving efficiency, it could prove decisive in securing a smooth progression into the quarter-finals.