Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Finals

Corentin Moutet vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #38
38%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #18
62%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

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Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #38 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #62 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #76 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #69 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #71 2024-10-14

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #18 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #14 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #9 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #5 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #5 2024-10-14

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 58.3
ELO Rating: 1223.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1648.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 460.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.7
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 88.6

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 66.4
ELO Rating: 2986.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2074.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 302.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.0
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 41.0
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (2-1) hard Almaty 132 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) hard Almaty 66 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Almaty 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-2) hard Shanghai 149 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) hard Shanghai 113 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Corentin Moutet
vs
0
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the finals of the ATP 250 tournament in Almaty, Kazakhstan, Corentin Moutet will face off against Daniil Medvedev on hard court. The predicted winner is Daniil Medvedev, with a probability of winning at 62.03%, while Corentin Moutet's probability stands at 37.97%. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev holds a higher rank at 18 compared to Corentin Moutet's 38, which reflects their recent performances and overall standing in the sport. Medvedev also boasts a significantly superior Elo rating of 2986.29 compared to Moutet's 1223.75. In terms of fatigue, Corentin Moutet has accumulated 460 minutes on court in the current tournament, indicating a potential impact on his performance. Conversely, Medvedev's fatigue level is lower at 302 minutes. When analyzing their playing styles, Medvedev has a mean serve index of 95.26, while Moutet's is slightly higher at 96.31. Although Moutet leads in serve index, the difference isn’t substantial enough to suggest a clear advantage. However, Medvedev's surface strength index of 29.04 outshines Moutet's 9.72, indicating a greater proficiency on hard courts. Looking at recent performances, both players have been in strong form; Moutet has won all three of his last matches in straight sets, while Medvedev has secured victories in two out of his last three, with one match going to three sets.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev's overall higher ranking, Elo rating, and surface strength give him a distinct edge over Corentin Moutet in this final. A crucial factor to observe will be Medvedev's ability to handle Moutet's serve, as both players have demonstrated strong serving capabilities throughout the tournament.

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