Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Corentin Moutet vs Reilly Opelka Prediction

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #32
55%
VS

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #52
45%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Corentin Moutet

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Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #32 2025-10-27
  • 3 mo ago #46 2025-07-28
  • 6 mo ago #82 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #65 2025-01-27
  • 12 mo ago #70 2024-10-28

Reilly Opelka

  • Current #52 2025-10-27
  • 3 mo ago #74 2025-07-28
  • 6 mo ago #103 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #145 2025-01-27
  • 12 mo ago #295 2024-10-28

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 55.5
ELO Rating: 1352.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1657.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.7
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 88.4

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 55.2
ELO Rating: 1044.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1664.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 67.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 5.8
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 82.7

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Reilly Opelka
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) hard Paris 67 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Basel 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Basel 72 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) hard Basel 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mika Brunold (2-1) hard Basel 179 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
0
Reilly Opelka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Corentin Moutet and Reilly Opelka in the Round of 64 at the Paris Masters 1000 promises to be an engaging encounter on hard court. With Moutet being favored to win with a probability of 54.81% compared to Opelka's 45.19%, the predicted total number of games played is estimated to be around 24.

Match Analysis

Corentin Moutet enters the match ranked 32 with an Elo rating of approximately 1352.47 and a solid form index of 55.55. His fatigue level is minimal at 0 minutes, allowing him to compete at peak performance. Moutet's surface strength index stands at 10.73, supporting his ability to excel on hard courts, while his mean serve index is slightly below Opelka's at 96.32. Notably, his mean return index of 88.41 significantly outstrips Opelka's 82.70, indicating a stronger return game. On the other hand, Reilly Opelka, currently ranked 52, possesses an Elo rating of 1044.81 and a form index of 55.21. However, he carries a cumulative fatigue of 67 minutes, which could impact his stamina during the match. His serve index of 97.18 showcases his powerful serving ability, yet the difference in their return indices may be detrimental against Moutet's return strength. Opelka's recent performance has been mixed, with a win over Mattia Bellucci in his last match, but prior losses against Ugo Humbert and a victory over Sebastian Baez indicate inconsistency.

Final Prediction

Moutet's superior return game and minimal fatigue give him a notable edge heading into this match. A key factor to monitor will be how effectively Opelka can leverage his serve against Moutet's strong returning abilities, as this could greatly influence the outcome of the match.

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