Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Dalibor Svrcina vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Prediction

Dalibor Svrcina

Rank: #126
39%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #31
61%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Why the Model Favors Tomas Martin Etcheverry

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +3.6 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Fatigue & recent workload +1.9 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Overall strength +1.9 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Age +1.8 Dalibor Svrcina
Overall record & opposition quality +1.5 Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Dalibor Svrcina

  • Current #126 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #112 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #121 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #93 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #91 2025-09-29

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #31 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #32 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #30 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #57 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #58 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Dalibor Svrcina

Form Index: 67.9
ELO Rating: 1694.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1654.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 359.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.2
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 6.7
Serve Rating: 93.9
Return Rating: 92.5

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 35.3
ELO Rating: 1641.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1706.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.3
Clay: 24.3
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Dalibor Svrcina
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-1) hard Shanghai 129 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Yoshihito Nishioka (0-0) hard Shanghai 48 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Billy Harris (2-1) hard Shanghai 182 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rinky Hijikata (0-2) hard Hangzhou 124 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Rio Noguchi (2-0) hard Hangzhou 82 min

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Dalibor Svrcina
vs
0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Etcheverry is favoured, with a 61% win probability to Svrcina’s 39%, and the forecast calls for 24.6 games. In this Shanghai Round of 64 match, the advantage is meaningful but leaves room for an upset.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry’s stronger serve is the clearest matchup advantage, and the balance of serve and return play also leans his way. Svrcina has the better return profile, however, which gives him a way to disrupt Etcheverry’s service rhythm and make the rallies more demanding. Svrcina has won three straight matches in Shanghai, including his latest against Cameron Norrie. That form is encouraging, but the workload is substantial: he has spent 359 minutes on court in the tournament, while Etcheverry has yet to play there. Etcheverry also has the much higher ranking, at 31 compared with Svrcina’s 126.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Dalibor Svrcina - Tomas Martin Etcheverry) -1.6 Most likely spread: -2 (Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Etcheverry is projected to hit 5.3 aces, against 2.9 for Svrcina, reflecting his serving advantage on hard courts. Svrcina is expected to make 4.0 double faults and Etcheverry 2.5, a gap that could matter if Svrcina’s tiredness affects his serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.2 Most likely: 6 aces Per player: Dalibor Svrcina 2.9 + Tomas Martin Etcheverry 5.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Dalibor Svrcina 4.0 + Tomas Martin Etcheverry 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Dalibor Svrcina

Expected 2.9 aces

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 5.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Dalibor Svrcina

Expected 4.0 double faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Dalibor Svrcina's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (36.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Svrcina’s recent run and returning ability are the clearest ways to overturn the forecast. If he can use them to pressure Etcheverry’s serve without his workload catching up with him, the match could become much closer.

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