Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Daniel Altmaier vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #49
39%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #26
61%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

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Ranking Trends

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current #49 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #59 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #82 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #89 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #84 2024-09-23

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #26 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #29 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #28 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #56 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #101 2024-09-23

Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 34.7
ELO Rating: 992.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1586.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.9
Clay: 8.7
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.7

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 45.4
ELO Rating: 1063.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1596.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (0-2) hard Cincinnati 119 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Yosuke Watanuki (1-2) hard Toronto 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-2) hard Washington 162 min

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Altmaier
vs
1
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Tokyo tournament, played on hard courts, Daniel Altmaier faces Denis Shapovalov. The predicted winner is Denis Shapovalov, with a probability of winning at 60.83%, while Altmaier's chances stand at 39.17%. The match is expected to see a total of approximately 23 games played.

Match Analysis

Denis Shapovalov, currently ranked 26, holds a significant advantage in Elo rating at 1063.72 compared to Altmaier's 992.35. Both players exhibit no cumulative fatigue, indicating they are fresh heading into this match. Shapovalov's surface strength index of 13.13 also surpasses Altmaier's index of 7.89, showcasing his better adaptability on hard courts. The mean serve index reveals a narrow gap, with Shapovalov at 95.52 and Altmaier at 97.05, while the mean return index indicates a more substantial difference, with Shapovalov at 85.96 and Altmaier at 87.72, favoring Altmaier's return game. In their recent performances, Altmaier has had a mixed bag, winning one of his last three matches. Notably, he achieved a significant victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas but suffered defeats against Alex de Minaur and Roberto Bautista Agut. Shapovalov, too, has faced challenges, with one win against Valentin Royer and losses to Jannik Sinner and Luca Nardi. Both players appear to be struggling with consistency, but Shapovalov's overall ranking and stronger performance metrics suggest he may be better poised to secure a win.

Final Prediction

Denis Shapovalov has the edge due to his higher ranking, Elo rating, and superior surface strength index. A key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Shapovalov's serve against Altmaier's return, which could significantly influence the match's outcome.

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