London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Round of 16

Daniel Evans vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Daniel Evans

Rank: #199
28%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #32
72%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

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Ranking Trends

Daniel Evans

  • Current #199 2025-06-16
  • 3 mo ago #183 2025-03-17
  • 6 mo ago #164 2024-12-16
  • 9 mo ago #177 2024-09-16
  • 12 mo ago #59 2024-06-17

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #32 2025-06-16
  • 3 mo ago #32 2025-03-17
  • 6 mo ago #38 2024-12-16
  • 9 mo ago #39 2024-09-16
  • 12 mo ago #63 2024-06-17

Player Metrics

Daniel Evans

Form Index: 49.9
ELO Rating: 378.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1607.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 2.9
Grass: 3.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 86.6

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 51.3
ELO Rating: 1246.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1584.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 151.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.4
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 12.3
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 84.0

Recent Matches

Daniel Evans
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 100 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-1) grass S Hertogenbosch 135 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mees Rottgering (2-1) grass S Hertogenbosch 160 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-1) grass S Hertogenbosch 119 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Clement Tabur (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Evans
vs
2
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 of the ATP 500 tournament in London, Daniel Evans faces Brandon Nakashima on grass. Nakashima is favored to win, with a probability of 72.38%, while Evans has a 27.62% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is estimated at 24.

Match Analysis

Brandon Nakashima, currently ranked 32, holds a significant advantage in both Elo rating (1246.81) and surface strength index (12.35), compared to Daniel Evans, who is ranked 199 with an Elo rating of 378.73 and a surface strength index of 3.81. Nakashima's form index (51.32) is slightly better than Evans' (49.89). Fatigue may play a role in the match, with Evans showing no cumulative fatigue while Nakashima has logged 151 minutes in the current tournament. However, Nakashima has a marginally lower mean serve index (96.64) compared to Evans (96.83), indicating their serving capabilities are closely matched. In their recent performances, Nakashima has won two out of his last three matches, including a victory against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in London. Conversely, Evans has had mixed results, having won one of his last three matches and coming off a loss to Ugo Humbert. This inconsistency could impact Evans' confidence going into the match.

Final Prediction

Nakashima's superior ranking, form, and overall performance in recent matches provide him with a clear edge over Evans. A key factor to observe will be Nakashima's ability to maintain his momentum while managing the fatigue accumulated during the tournament.

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