Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Daniil Medvedev vs Cameron Norrie Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #18
51%
VS

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #34
49%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #18 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #9 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #5 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2024-09-30)

Cameron Norrie

  • Current Rank: #34 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #61 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #81 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #49 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #52 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 29.7
ELO Rating: 2981.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2071.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.0
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 87.8

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 45.4
ELO Rating: 1345.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1707.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.3
Clay: 11.3
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Hangzhou 191 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nishesh Basavareddy (2-0) hard Hangzhou 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Adam Walton (1-2) hard Cincinnati 141 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexei Popyrin (1-2) hard Toronto 150 min

Cameron Norrie
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Yi Zhou (1-2) hard Chengdu 164 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Korda (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (0-2) hard Cincinnati 111 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Cameron Norrie
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Beijing tournament on hard courts, Daniil Medvedev is set to face Cameron Norrie. The predicted winner is Daniil Medvedev, with a win probability of 51.24% compared to Cameron Norrie's 48.76%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 23 games.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev holds the 18th rank and boasts a form index of 29.73, indicating a solid performance level. His Elo rating is significantly higher at 2981.89, showcasing his competitive edge. Medvedev's fatigue index stands at 0.0, suggesting he has not yet accumulated any fatigue from this tournament. His surface strength index is also robust at 29.01. In contrast, Cameron Norrie ranks 34th with a form index of 45.39 and a considerably lower Elo rating of 1345.30. Norrie's fatigue is also at 0.0, however, his surface strength index is only 10.30. Notably, Medvedev's mean serve index of 96.66 is higher than Norrie's 95.34, but their mean return indices are nearly identical, with Medvedev at 87.80 and Norrie at 87.84. Recent performances see Medvedev with mixed results; he lost his last match against Yibing Wu but won against Nishesh Basavareddy in the tournament prior. Norrie similarly struggled, losing his most recent match against Yi Zhou after a defeat to Novak Djokovic. Both players have shown vulnerability lately, but Medvedev's overall higher ranking and statistics suggest he may have the upper hand in this matchup.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev has an edge due to his higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and slightly better serving capabilities. A key factor to watch in this match will be how both players handle pressure points, particularly in critical moments of the game, which could dictate the match's outcome.