Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #6
77%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #59
23%
Expected Total Games: 24.5
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +11.9 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +4.9 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +4.8 Daniil Medvedev
Age +4.2 Daniil Medvedev
Recent form +3.6 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 77% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #6 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #13 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-09-29

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #59 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #74 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #75 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #83 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #98 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 51.3
ELO Rating: 1845.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1889.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 81.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 45.4
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 91.0

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 54.1
ELO Rating: 1704.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1693.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 65.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.6
Clay: 16.9
Grass: 31.5
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 85.1

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
2 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Medvedev is the clear favorite, at 77% to Struff’s 23%, with 24.5 games expected. In this Beijing Round of 16 match, his recent results and stronger hard-court profile point to the advantage.

Match Analysis

Medvedev brings a three-match winning streak, with straight-set wins over Pablo Carreno Busta in Beijing and Roman Safiullin in Hangzhou. Struff also won his Beijing opener in straight sets, against Thiago Agustin Tirante, but Medvedev’s recent run is the stronger case for the favorite. Medvedev is ranked sixth to Struff’s 59th and is the stronger returner, a meaningful difference on a hard court. Struff’s serve is close to Medvedev’s in strength, which gives him a way to keep sets competitive, but his weaker return leaves less room to pressure Medvedev.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.5 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Jan-Lennard Struff) +3.4 Most likely spread: +3 (Daniil Medvedev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected to hit 10.2 aces and 3.5 double faults, while Struff is forecast for 7.0 aces and 3.6 double faults. Medvedev’s slightly stronger serve profile supports the ace gap, while the double-fault estimates are nearly even.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.2 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 10.2 + Jan-Lennard Struff 7.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.0 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 3.5 + Jan-Lennard Struff 3.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 10.2 aces

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 7.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.5 double faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 3.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (48.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Struff’s strongest route to an upset is making his serve hold up well enough to keep Medvedev from taking control with his return. If Medvedev consistently puts Struff under pressure on serve, the favorite’s advantage should show.

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