Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Daniil Medvedev vs Jenson Brooksby: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #11
74%
VS

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #49
26%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #11 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #13 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #13 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #11 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-02-24

Jenson Brooksby

  • Current #49 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #53 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #92 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #161 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #1098 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 53.1
ELO Rating: 2341.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1992.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 139.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.3
Clay: 20.9
Grass: 21.7
Serve Rating: 74.0
Return Rating: 54.6

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 43.3
ELO Rating: 1136.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 197.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.3
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 10.3
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Jenson Brooksby
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Jenson Brooksby
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinal action in Dubai, U.A.E., on hard courts at this 500-level event pits Daniil Medvedev against Jenson Brooksby. The model favors Medvedev to advance, with a 73.84% chance of winning versus 26.16% for Brooksby, and projects a relatively short match of about 23.03 total games.

Match Analysis

Medvedev enters ranked 11 with a form index of 53.08 and an Elo of 2341.63; his cumulative tournament court time sits at 139 minutes and his surface strength index is 12.29. Brooksby is ranked 49 with a form index of 43.25 and a much lower Elo of 1136.05, but with higher cumulative fatigue at 197 minutes and a surface strength index of 10.32. The mean serve index gap is substantial: Brooksby (97.40) versus Medvedev (74.04), a difference of more than 5 points, and the mean return index gap is also large in Brooksby’s favor (92.20 vs 54.55), both notable contrasts for this matchup. Recent results show Medvedev winning his two Dubai matches in straight sets (73- and 66-minute matches) after a loss to Tsitsipas in Doha (76 minutes). Brooksby likewise arrives on the back of two Dubai wins — longer matches of 103 and 94 minutes — following a loss in Doha (82 minutes). Those recent lines underline Medvedev’s steadier short-match efficiency and Brooksby’s heavier court time this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.0 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Jenson Brooksby) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Daniil Medvedev wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 8.89 total, while the predicted double faults (expected double faults) are about 6.37. On medium-paced hard courts, serve effectiveness tends to balance with returning ability; the predicted aces figure reflects that middle ground. Given Brooksby’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces total, while both players may account for the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medvedev’s edge comes from a markedly higher Elo, stronger ranking and fresher legs in this event, despite Brooksby’s standout serve and return indices. Key factor to watch: how Brooksby’s elite serve numbers translate into free points against Medvedev’s return game and whether Medvedev’s experience can neutralize that short-term serving threat.

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