Dubai
U.A.E.
Hard
Atp 500
Quarterfinals
Daniil Medvedev vs Jenson Brooksby: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults
Daniil Medvedev
Rank: #11
74%
VS
Jenson Brooksby
Rank: #49
26%
Expected Total Games:
23.0
Predicted Winner:
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking Trends
Daniil Medvedev
- Current Rank: #11 (2026-02-23)
- 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-11-24)
- 6 Months Ago: #13 (2025-08-25)
- 9 Months Ago: #11 (2025-05-26)
- 12 Months Ago: #6 (2025-02-24)
Jenson Brooksby
- Current Rank: #49 (2026-02-23)
- 3 Months Ago: #53 (2025-11-24)
- 6 Months Ago: #92 (2025-08-25)
- 9 Months Ago: #161 (2025-05-26)
- 12 Months Ago: #1098 (2025-02-17)
Player Metrics
Daniil Medvedev
Form Index:
53.1
ELO Rating:
2341.6
Glicko2 Rating:
1992.1
Current Fatigue (minutes):
139.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
12.3
Clay:
20.9
Grass:
21.7
Serve Rating:
74.0
Return Rating:
54.6
Jenson Brooksby
Form Index:
43.3
ELO Rating:
1136.1
Glicko2 Rating:
1600.9
Current Fatigue (minutes):
197.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
10.3
Clay:
10.2
Grass:
10.3
Serve Rating:
97.4
Return Rating:
92.2
Recent Matches
Daniil Medvedev
- Last Match: vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) hard Dubai 73 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Dubai 66 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (0-2) hard Doha 76 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Doha 75 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (1-2) hard Rotterdam 142 min
Jenson Brooksby
- Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) hard Dubai 103 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Dubai 94 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Doha 82 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Dallas 142 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Jenson Brooksby
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
Quarterfinal action in Dubai, U.A.E., on hard courts at this 500-level event pits Daniil Medvedev against Jenson Brooksby. The model favors Medvedev to advance, with a 73.84% chance of winning versus 26.16% for Brooksby, and projects a relatively short match of about 23.03 total games.
Match Analysis
Medvedev enters ranked 11 with a form index of 53.08 and an Elo of 2341.63; his cumulative tournament court time sits at 139 minutes and his surface strength index is 12.29. Brooksby is ranked 49 with a form index of 43.25 and a much lower Elo of 1136.05, but with higher cumulative fatigue at 197 minutes and a surface strength index of 10.32. The mean serve index gap is substantial: Brooksby (97.40) versus Medvedev (74.04), a difference of more than 5 points, and the mean return index gap is also large in Brooksby’s favor (92.20 vs 54.55), both notable contrasts for this matchup.
Recent results show Medvedev winning his two Dubai matches in straight sets (73- and 66-minute matches) after a loss to Tsitsipas in Doha (76 minutes). Brooksby likewise arrives on the back of two Dubai wins — longer matches of 103 and 94 minutes — following a loss in Doha (82 minutes). Those recent lines underline Medvedev’s steadier short-match efficiency and Brooksby’s heavier court time this week.
Total Games Predictions
Expected Total Games in Match
23.0
Most likely outcome: 23 games
Total Games Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total games outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total games ≤ X
Aces and Double Faults Predictions
The aces prediction for the match is 8.89 total, while the predicted double faults (expected double faults) are about 6.37. On medium-paced hard courts, serve effectiveness tends to balance with returning ability; the predicted aces figure reflects that middle ground. Given Brooksby’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces total, while both players may account for the expected double faults.
Expected Total Aces
8.9
Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults
6.4
Most likely: 6 double faults
Aces Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each ace count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of aces ≤ X
Double Faults Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each double fault count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of double faults ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Final Prediction
Medvedev’s edge comes from a markedly higher Elo, stronger ranking and fresher legs in this event, despite Brooksby’s standout serve and return indices. Key factor to watch: how Brooksby’s elite serve numbers translate into free points against Medvedev’s return game and whether Medvedev’s experience can neutralize that short-term serving threat.
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