Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Finals

Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
73%
VS

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #128
27%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.6 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +5.8 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +3.2 Daniil Medvedev
Serve & return game +2.9 Daniil Medvedev
Age +2.8 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 73% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-10-20

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #128 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #130 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #120 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #105 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #96 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 59.8
ELO Rating: 1953.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1926.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 148.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.5
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 91.0

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 65.8
ELO Rating: 1715.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1733.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 523.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.5
Clay: 23.3
Grass: 11.5
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Nikoloz Basilashvili
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Medvedev is favored at 73%, while Basilashvili has a 27% chance. The expected total is 24.9 games. The forecast reflects Medvedev’s stronger overall level and hard-court suitability, though Basilashvili’s unbeaten run gives him a route into the match.

Match Analysis

Medvedev has the stronger return and is ranked fifth, compared with Basilashvili at 128th. On hard court, that combination should help him put more pressure on Basilashvili’s service games and make the Georgian work harder to take control of rallies. Both players have won their first three matches in Almaty, but Basilashvili’s victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas came in a 136-minute match. He has spent 523 minutes on court this tournament, against 148 for Medvedev, and Medvedev also has the stronger hard-court profile.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Nikoloz Basilashvili) +2.4 Most likely spread: +2 (Daniil Medvedev wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected to hit 9.8 aces and Basilashvili 7.3. Their serve strengths are close, which fits the similar double-fault projections of 3.8 for Medvedev and 3.6 for Basilashvili.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.1 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 9.8 + Nikoloz Basilashvili 7.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.3 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 3.8 + Nikoloz Basilashvili 3.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 9.8 aces

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 7.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.8 double faults

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 3.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (46.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Basilashvili’s win over Tsitsipas is the clearest reason he could upset the forecast. If his strong form continues despite the much heavier workload, he has a chance to make Medvedev’s return advantage less decisive.

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