Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
76%
VS

Terence Atmane

Rank: #98
24%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +8.1 Daniil Medvedev
Recent record by level +7.6 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +6.5 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +5.9 Daniil Medvedev
Recent form +2.6 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 76% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-10-20

Terence Atmane

  • Current #98 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #49 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #47 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #64 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #68 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 58.3
ELO Rating: 1934.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1919.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 52.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.0
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 91.1

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 33.9
ELO Rating: 1627.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1666.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 251.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.7
Clay: 13.7
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Terence Atmane
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Terence Atmane
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Medvedev is a clear favourite, with a 76% win probability to Atmane’s 24%. The forecast is for 24.9 games.

Match Analysis

Medvedev’s stronger serve-and-return game is the main separator, particularly his ability to put pressure on Atmane’s service games. The ranking gap, fifth against 98th, also reflects Medvedev’s greater overall strength. Atmane has won both of his Almaty matches, including a three-set win over Mattia Bellucci, but that match lasted 169 minutes. Medvedev needed just 52 minutes to beat Sho Shimabukuro, so Atmane has spent considerably longer on court this week. Medvedev’s stronger hard-court profile adds to his advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Terence Atmane) +3.7 Most likely spread: +4 (Daniil Medvedev wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected for 10.0 aces and 3.7 double faults, while Atmane is forecast for 7.3 aces and 3.2 double faults. Their serve strengths are relatively close, though Medvedev’s higher projection reflects his overall serving advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.4 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 10.0 + Terence Atmane 7.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 3.7 + Terence Atmane 3.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 10.0 aces

Terence Atmane

Expected 7.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.7 double faults

Terence Atmane

Expected 3.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (52.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Atmane’s serve is his clearest way to disrupt the forecast: if it earns him enough free points to limit Medvedev’s return pressure, he can make this closer. Otherwise, his heavier workload may become harder to overcome.

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