Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
63%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #17
37%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +8.0 Daniil Medvedev
Recent record by level +6.7 Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-head +1.1 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +0.6 Tommy Paul

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #13 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-09-29

Tommy Paul

  • Current #17 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #25 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #18 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #20 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #15 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 64.7
ELO Rating: 1939.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1917.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 270.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.6
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 91.0

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 65.6
ELO Rating: 1930.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1893.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 269.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 44.3
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Tommy Paul
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Daniil Medvedev is favored 63% to 37% over Tommy Paul in the Shanghai Quarterfinals. The projection is for 24.9 games, suggesting a match that could require a sustained effort from both players.

Match Analysis

The main separation is Medvedev’s slightly stronger serve and return combination. That should give him more opportunities to pressure Paul’s service games and more consistency when returning. Medvedev’s recent record at this level also supports the pick: he has won all three matches in Shanghai, including a straight-set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Paul has likewise won all three of his matches in straight sets, so his current run gives him a sound basis to challenge. The hard-court fit offers Paul a small counterweight, but the forecast gives it less weight than Medvedev’s serve and return advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Tommy Paul) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected to hit 8.5 aces and Paul 4.5, with 3.6 double faults for Medvedev and 2.3 for Paul. Medvedev’s slight serving advantage accounts for most of the projected ace gap, while their similar serve profiles keep the double-fault estimates fairly close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.7 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 8.5 + Tommy Paul 4.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 3.6 + Tommy Paul 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 8.5 aces

Tommy Paul

Expected 4.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.6 double faults

Tommy Paul

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s hard-court fit is the specific factor that could turn this into a closer contest. If it helps him limit the pressure Medvedev creates on return, the favorite’s main advantage may be less decisive.

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