Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Denis Shapovalov vs Casper Ruud Prediction

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #24
45%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #12
55%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

Ranking Trends

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current Rank: #24 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #33 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #29 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #56 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #92 (2024-10-14)

Casper Ruud

  • Current Rank: #12 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #10 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #6 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #8 (2024-10-14)

Player Metrics

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 51.3
ELO Rating: 1047.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 284.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.5
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 86.2

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 56.5
ELO Rating: 3013.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1784.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 259.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.1
Clay: 30.6
Grass: 35.0
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Denis Shapovalov
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Elias Ymer (2-1) hard Stockholm 156 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Leo Borg (2-1) hard Stockholm 128 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Shanghai 93 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-0) hard Shanghai 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (0-2) hard Tokio 90 min

Casper Ruud
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Korda (2-1) hard Stockholm 150 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Stockholm 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Zizou Bergs (1-2) hard Shanghai 128 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-2) hard Tokio 128 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Tokio 58 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Denis Shapovalov
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the semifinals of the Stockholm tournament, set on hard courts, Denis Shapovalov will face Casper Ruud in a highly anticipated match. With a slight edge, Ruud is predicted to win with a probability of 55.42%, while Shapovalov holds a 44.58% chance of victory. The anticipated total number of games played is estimated at 24.

Match Analysis

Denis Shapovalov currently ranks 24th and has a form index of 51.33, reflecting a mixed performance lately. His Elo rating stands at 1047.20, with a cumulative fatigue of 284 minutes from the current tournament. Shapovalov's surface strength index of 12.54 indicates his proficiency on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.91 and a mean return index of 86.22. In contrast, Casper Ruud ranks 12th and exhibits stronger recent form with a form index of 56.50. His Elo rating of 3013.41 and lower cumulative fatigue of 259 minutes suggest better physical condition. Ruud's surface strength index of 18.14, along with a mean serve index of 95.53 and a mean return index of 85.75, positions him favorably against Shapovalov. Over their last three matches, Shapovalov has secured victories against Elias Ymer and Leo Borg, while suffering a defeat to Jiri Lehecka. Ruud, on the other hand, has won against Sebastian Korda and Marin Cilic, with a recent loss to Zizou Bergs. Notably, Shapovalov's serve index exceeds Ruud's by 1.38 points, while his return index is higher by 0.47 points, indicating a competitive edge in serve but a closer contest in returns.

Final Prediction

Casper Ruud's higher ranking, better form index, and reduced fatigue lend him a distinct advantage heading into the match. The key factor to monitor will be Shapovalov's serving effectiveness; should he find his rhythm, it may pose significant challenges for Ruud.