Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik Sinner: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Eliot Spizzirri

Rank: #89
11%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
89%
Expected Total Games: 36.2
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

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Player Metrics

Eliot Spizzirri

Form Index: 93.0
ELO Rating: 887.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.7
Clay: 4.3
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 57.4
Return Rating: 56.3

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 97.4
ELO Rating: 11500.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2683.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 96.4

Recent Matches

Eliot Spizzirri

  • Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) hard Auckland 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Auckland 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Auckland 80 min

Jannik Sinner

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Eliot Spizzirri
vs
0
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the 2026 Australian Open, Jannik Sinner is set to face Eliot Spizzirri on hard courts in Australia. With Sinner ranked second in the world and boasting an impressive form index, he is the clear favorite with an 89.26% probability of winning, while Spizzirri's chances stand at 10.74%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 36.17 games.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner holds a commanding rank of 2, coupled with a high form index of 97.43, indicating exceptional current performance. His Elo rating of 11500 reflects his status as a top competitor. In contrast, Eliot Spizzirri, ranked 89, has a form index of 93.05, which, while respectable, pales in comparison to Sinner's metrics. Both players have a cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes from this tournament, but Sinner's surface strength index of 100 significantly exceeds Spizzirri's 5.72, indicating superior adaptability to hard courts. An important distinction is evident in the mean serve index; Sinner's 97.04 is markedly higher than Spizzirri's 57.43, bridging a gap of over 40 points. Similarly, Sinner's mean return index of 96.41 surpasses Spizzirri's 56.27 by over 40 points as well. This suggests that Sinner's aggressive serving and adept returning will likely dominate the match. Recent performances further reinforce this; Sinner has not dropped a set in his last three matches, while Spizzirri has shown vulnerability, losing a match in Auckland and narrowly winning two others in Melbourne.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.2 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Eliot Spizzirri versus Jannik Sinner. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Eliot Spizzirri versus Jannik Sinner. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Eliot Spizzirri - Jannik Sinner) +1.2 Most likely spread: +1 (Eliot Spizzirri wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Eliot Spizzirri versus Jannik Sinner. Positive values indicate Eliot Spizzirri winning more games, negative values indicate Jannik Sinner winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Eliot Spizzirri versus Jannik Sinner. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is predicted to feature approximately 13.22 aces, with both players likely contributing to this total. Given the balanced nature of hard courts, which reward both power servers and strong returners, the ace count could reflect Sinner's superior serve index. Expected double faults are estimated at 4.4, with both players needing to maintain their focus and precision to minimize errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Eliot Spizzirri versus Jannik Sinner. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Eliot Spizzirri versus Jannik Sinner. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Eliot Spizzirri versus Jannik Sinner. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Eliot Spizzirri versus Jannik Sinner. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Sinner’s extensive advantages in serve and return metrics, along with his current form, provide him with a significant edge in this matchup. A key factor to observe will be Spizzirri’s ability to handle Sinner's powerful serves, which could determine the flow and outcome of the match.

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