Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Semifinals

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Bublik Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #10
51%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #16
49%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #10 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #28 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #19 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #23 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #27 (2024-10-28)

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #16 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #25 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #75 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #39 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #33 (2024-10-28)

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 62.1
ELO Rating: 1613.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1718.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 531.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.8
Clay: 13.0
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 85.3

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 60.6
ELO Rating: 1874.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1777.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 398.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.8
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 85.2

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Vacherot (2-0) hard Paris 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-1) hard Paris 131 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (2-1) hard Paris 184 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-1) hard Paris 138 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (0-1) hard Basel 45 min

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-1) hard Paris 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Paris 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Paris 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Paris 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Vienna 76 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
1
Alexander Bublik
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the semifinals of the Paris Masters 1000 tournament, Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Alexander Bublik on hard courts in France. Auger-Aliassime is slightly favored to win with a probability of 51.36%, compared to Bublik's 48.64%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 24 games played.

Match Analysis

Felix Auger-Aliassime, currently ranked 10th, boasts a form index of 62.11 and an Elo rating of 1613.76. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament sits at 531 minutes, which may impact his performance. On the other hand, Alexander Bublik, ranked 16th, has a form index of 60.58 and a higher Elo rating of 1874.24, indicating a strong competitive edge. Bublik's fatigue is lower at 398 minutes, which could favor his stamina in a potentially grueling match. Notably, Auger-Aliassime has a marginally superior mean serve index of 97.48 compared to Bublik's 95.56, and both players' mean return indices are closely matched, with Auger-Aliassime at 85.33 and Bublik at 85.22. In their recent performances, Auger-Aliassime has shown solid form, winning all three of his last matches, including a convincing 2-0 set victory over Valentin Vacherot in his last outing. Bublik also comes off a winning streak, having won against Alex de Minaur, but his matches have been slightly more strenuous, including a longer 142-minute contest. This could play a role in how they manage energy levels, especially in a high-stakes semifinal.

Final Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime's slight edge in serve strength and his recent match consistency position him as the predicted winner. However, the lower fatigue level of Alexander Bublik could be a crucial factor in the match's outcome, making it essential to watch how both players manage their energy throughout the contest.